After buying the team in December of 2022 for $4 billion, Matt Ishiba made it clear in his first off-season as owner that he expects nothing less than a championship in Phoenix, which is reflected in the over/under win total projections for the Suns this season.

During this past off-season, the Phoenix Suns made five trades and seven free-agent signings. This rapid movement of players came off the heels of a very disappointing 2022-23 campaign, where they went 45-37 and made a quick second-round exit at the hands of the Denver Nuggets.

However, with a new head coach in town in the form of Frank Vogel and a brand new big three composed of Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant, the Suns hold the highest win total line in the Western Conference.

Here are the Suns NBA Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

NBA Odds: Suns Odds

Over: 52.5 wins (-110)

Under: 52.5 wins (-110)

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Why The Suns Will Win 53 Games

Although these transactions are overwhelming, the Suns may have brought in the key to success, Frank Vogel. In his first season with the Lakers in 2019, he led them to a 52-19 record and an NBA Championship. He did so with a starting five of Alex Caruso, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, and Anthony Davis. While James is in a league of his own regarding his ability to lead a team, the Suns have a much more well-rounded starting five and even more bench depth. If Vogel can lead a team to 52 wins in just 71 games in his first year, he can achieve it again with the firepower on this roster.

In addition, the Suns will see a healthy Kevin Durant play throughout the season. After Phoenix acquired him in February last season, he only played eight regular season games. However, in those eight games, the Suns went 8-0 and Durant averaged 26.0 points per game on 57.0% shooting from the field and 53.7% from three. His efficiency from mid-range and three was incredible and gives fans a ton to look forward to now that he can play full-time.

Looking at all the additions they brought in this summer to bolster their depth, it is clear they are looking for tough, physical, 3&D players. This style they brought in perfectly fits the mold of the modern NBA, and opposing teams will hurt because of it. Eric Gordon, Keita Bates-Diop, Yuta Watanabe, and Drew Eubanks all shot 38.9% or better from three last season and no fewer than 0.4 blocks per game and 0.3 steals per game. If an injury occurs or fatigue kicks in for their stars, the Suns will not let their bench depth be their crutch this season as it was last season.

Why The Suns Will Not Win 53 Games

The Phoenix Suns have been able to win more than 53 games just one time in the past 13 seasons, and even amid all the hype surrounding the Bradley Beal trade, why should this season be any different? They traded Chris Paul, Landry Shamet, and Deandre Ayton in exchange for Bradley Beal and Jusuf Nurkic, which some may consider a lateral move rather than an upgrade. That said, only one team in the entire Western Conference surpassed 52.5 wins last year. This was the Denver Nuggets, and they had one of the more cohesive units in all of basketball, with minimal roster turnover from the season before.

On the surface, it may seem like Jusuf Nurkic is an upgrade over Deandre Ayton, given that Ayton had a drama-filled tenure in Phoenix. However, comparing the way these two played last season, Ayton was a much better all-around player. He played in 67 games relative to Nurkic's injury-plagued 52-game season, but most notably, the difference in win shares is astonishing. Ayton had an impressive win share count of 6.2, while Nurkic had less than half of that with a win share of 2.7. Ayton tallied more offensive and defensive rebounds per game and more efficient shooting numbers. While it may be nice for Phoenix to get a player who actually wants to play there, Ayton's presence on the glass and defense cannot be overlooked.

Final Suns Over-Under Win Total Prediction & Pick for 2023

While it is tough to say for sure that a team led by Devin Booker and Kevin Durant will fall short of expectations, I will be taking the under-win total for the Phoenix Suns. With all these new faces in Phoenix, the team is bound to experience a couple of bumps in the road at some point in the season. With a line set at 52.5, oddsmakers expect borderline perfection every game, which poses a tough challenge for a new coach with many unfamiliar players. Even though I still think this team will be incredibly successful this season and beyond, 53 wins is too steep.