The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were far from the betting favorites to win the NFC South entering this season. The Bucs had the longest odds of winning this division before the season, getting +800 odds from sportsbooks like DraftKings and Caesar's. But as the Buccaneers enter Week 18, they are in control of their destiny in regard to winning this division. Though they are coming off a very disappointing loss at the hands of the New Orleans Saints in which they could've clinched the NFC South then and there, they would've surely taken the position they're in now before the season started. The NFC South is their division to lose. There are a couple of reasons why.
All they have to do is beat the Carolina Panthers
For the Buccaneers to clinch the NFC South and a home playoff birth, the team simply has to beat the 2-14 Carolina Panthers.
That's it.
Carolina has already given the Chicago Bears the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft as a result of their offseason trade to acquire the No. 1 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft that they used to select quarterback Bryce Young. Most recently, the Panthers were losing 26-0 to the Jacksonville Jaguars and their owner David Tepper was spotted throwing his drink at a Jaguars fan.
The Panthers rank 29th in the NFL in EPA per play on offense and 26th in the league in EPA allowed per play on defense. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, ranks 12th in 21st in both metrics.
The Panthers are still a professional team and have not only beaten a couple of potential playoff teams in the Houston Texans and the Atlanta Falcons, but they won't catch the Bucs by surprise. If they do, it would be a firable offense committed by just about everyone on the Buccaneers' coaching staff.
Young and company will give the Bucs a game, but the Bucs are the far superior team. Not only should they win to clinch the NFC South, but they should win handily.
The Saints and Falcons need to win and get help to win the NFC South
The New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons are both still alive in the NFC South picture, but their paths are much more arduous than Tampa's. Both the Saints and Falcons need the Panthers to win against the Bucs to keep any hope of winning the NFC South alive. They also play against each other, so one of them is going to eliminate the other from playoff contention.
This is huge for Tampa's chances of winning the division. They don't have to worry about anything other than beating the Panthers. The Bucs also only have to worry about one permutation whether or not they win the NFC South. Because those two are playing head-to-head, they don't have to worry about both of those teams having a shot to slide atop first place in that division. Only one of them can, and their only chance at doing so includes the Bucs losing a game they are 5.5-point favorites in.
The NFC South really is the Buccaneers' to lose in Week 18. All they have to do is win a game against the worst team in the NFL. If they don't win this game then they don't deserve to make the playoffs. But that and the fact that both the Saints and the Falcons can't catch them bodes extremely well for their chances to make the playoffs and win the NFC South.
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