The Cincinnati Reds are fighting for their playoff lives as they face the Cleveland Guardians. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a Reds-Guardians prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
The Reds enter the series after losing two of three to the Padres. On Sunday they did break a four-game losing streak, capping off their last home game of the year with a victory. It is possible if the Reds do not make a run here in the last week of the season, that will be the last home game of Joey Votto's Reds career. The Reds are hanging on to their playoff hopes. the Reds are 80-77 on the season. That places them 2.5 games behind the Cubs and the Diamondbacks for the last two Wild Card spots. Meanwhile, the Marlins are also in the way, just a game back of the Cubb and Diamondbacks.
The Guardians come in as winners of two of four over the Orioles. The Guardians' season has not gone as planned. They suffered from multiple injuries and underperformance by key players. The Guardians are officially eliminated from playoff contention, sitting with a 74-83 record on the year. They will now aim to hold on to second place in the division. They are just a half-game ahead of the Tigers in the division.
Here are the Reds-Guardians MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds-Guardians Odds
Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+155)
Cleveland Guardians: +1.5 (-188)
Over: 8 (-108)
Under: 8 (-112)
How To Watch Reds vs. Guardians
TV: BSOH/BSGL
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 6:10 PM ET/ 3:10 PM PT
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Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
The Red's pitching has let them down as they have lost four of their last five. They have given up 34 runs in the last five games, including allowing a huge comeback by the Pirates on Saturday. On the year, the Reds are 25th in team ERA, while sitting 24th in WHIP and 24th in opponent batting average. They send Hunter Greene to the mound today. He is 4-6 on the year with a 4.24 ERA. Greene has been solid this month. In three starts he has given up five runs with four earned. That gives him a 1.93 ERA this month. He has given up three or fewer runs in every start this month, while he stuck out 14 last time-outs.
Meanwhile, the Reds have been solid at the plate this year. They are tenth in the majors in runs scored, while sitting 17th in batting average, 11th in on-base percentage, and 17th in slugging. The leader in the last week has been TJ Friedl. Friedl has hit .429 in the last week with a .556 on-base percentage. He has three home runs in the last week with a double. That had helped him drive in seven RBIs. Friedl has also stolen two bases and scored four runs in the last week. Meanwhile, Christian Encarnacion-Strand is hitting well. Encarnacion-Strand is hitting .333 in the last week with a .400 on-base percentage. He also has three home runs in the last week, which has led to six RBIs. E Encarnacion-Strand has scored four runs in the last week.
Spencer Steer also comes in hot. He is hitting .360 in the last week with a .395 on-base percentage. He has four doubles in the last week with a stolen base. That has led to two RBIs in the last week with three runs scored. As a whole, the Reds have hit .244 in the last week with a .346 on-base percentage. They have hit eight home runs in the last week and scored 31 times. That is on an expected 30.2 runs, so they are right on the expected pace for scoring runs in the last week.
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
The Guardians have been hit-and-miss as of late in scoring runs. In the last seven games, they have scored 28 runs. In that time, 14 of the runs have come in the two wins, while they have scored just 14 runs in the five losses. On the season the Guardians are 27th in runs scored whole sitting 15th in batting average, 24th in on-base percentage, and 28th in slugging.
Andres Giminez has been the leader of the club in the last week. He is hitting,407 in the last week with two stolen bases, a double, a triple, and a home run. This has led to him driving in four runs and scoring five times in the last seven games. Meanwhile, Josh Naylor is also being productive. He is hitting just .200 in the last week but has a .300 on-base percentage. Naylor had a double and four RBIs in the last week, while also stealing a base and scoring four times.
Meanwhile, Josh Naylor's brother Bo Naylor is also scoring runs. In the last week, he is hitting .33 but has a .571 on-base percentage. He has hit a double and a home run, leading to three RBIs. Further, Bo Naylor has stolen a base and scored four times in the last week. As a whole, the Guardians are hitting just .237 in the last week with a .308 on-base percentage. They have hit just three home runs while stealing eight bases. This has led to them scoring 28 times in the last week on an expected 27.6 runs.
The Guardians will send Lucas Gioloito to the mound today. He is 8-14 on the season with a 4.60 ERA. Since coming over to the Guardians off waivers, he has not been very solid. In 22.1 innings of work, he has given up 17 runs with 14 earned. That is good for a 5.64 ERa. He has also given up seven home runs in those four starts. The majority of the rough work was in his first two starts, where he gave up 12 runs and six home runs in ten innings. He rebounded to go seven innings with just two hits, 12 strikeouts, and no runs against the Rangers after that.
Final Reds-Guardians Prediction & Pick
On the mound, the pitching edge is hard to decipher. In the last month, Hunter Greene has been the better pitcher and has given up a lot less hard contact. Still, when Lucas Giolito is at his best recently, he is better. Overall, the recent body of work is going to carry some weight, and that goes to Greene. Even more so, the Reds are hitting better as a team. Not only are they hitting better, but their barrel percentage and hard-hit ball percentage are much better. Giolitto can struggle there. With that, take the Reds to score enough to cover in this one.
Final Reds-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Reds -1.5 (+155)
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