The Cincinnati Reds (25-29) visit the Boston Red Sox (28-26) for the second of their three-game series on Wednesday night. First pitch commences at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Reds jumped out to an early series lead thanks to their 9-8 win in yesterday's opener. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Reds-Red Sox prediction, pick. and how to watch.
Here are the Reds-Red Sox MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Reds-Red Sox Odds
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-128)
Boston Red Sox: -1.5 (+106)
Over: 10.5 (-112)
Under: 10.5 (-108)
How To Watch Reds vs. Red Sox
TV: Bally Sports, NESN
Stream: MLB.tv ESPN+
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET/ 4:10 p.m. PT
*See how to watch Reds-Red Sox LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 6-4 (Third in the NL Central)
Run Line Record: 32-22 (59%)
Over Record: 31-23 (57%)
Cincinnati continues to lurk around in the NL Central. Despite being four games under .500, they sit just three games back of first place in the division. Thus is life in one of the central divisions. Consequently, the Reds find themselves very much in the thick of it despite a huge lack of big-league experience. However, they feature arguably the best farm system in the league with a loaded Triple-A roster on the brink of being called up. Still, even with their current roster, the Reds can put a scare into even the top-tier teams. That was on full display in the series opener when they put up nine runs on 12 hits. That said, they likely won't get away with allowing eight runs again and will need a strong performance from their bullpen if they want to cover.
Veteran Luke Weaver (1-2) makes his eighth start of the year for the Reds tonight. Weaver has never been an above-average pitcher but he's really fallen off the last two seasons. Through seven starts, the righty holds a 5.45 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. While his strikeout stuff has been in full effect, he's been getting shelled by opposing hitters. In three separate starts, he allowed multiple home runs and he only has two starts allowing one or fewer runs. That said, both came within his last three outings against the Marlins and Cardinals. While there was a blow-up against the Yankees in between, he is certainly trending upward after a brutal first four appearances. However, he has a rough track record at Fenway Park which includes getting pegged for two runs in just two innings last season.
Given how shaky Weaver has been, the Reds likely need their offense to carry the load yet again if they want to cover against a superior Red Sox team. Cincinnati has quietly been a solid offensive baseball team this season considering they average the 12th-most runs per game. They have gotten pretty lucky however with a league-leading .327 BABIP. While their eighth-ranked walk rate is solid, Cincy's struggles to hit for power (28th in home run rate) are certainly concerning especially given their favorable home ballpark.
Why The Red Sox Could Cover The Spread
Last 10: 4-6 (Fifth in the AL Central)
Run Line Record: 28-26 (52%)
Over Record: 32-20-2 (62%)
Boston has fallen off somewhat after a hot start to the season but still sits two games over .500. In the AL or NL Central, they would be fine and still in the lead for the division crown. Unfortunately, the Red Sox play in the AL East – the best division in baseball. As a result, the Red Sox have fallen into fifth place in the division. Still, the Red Sox boast an absolutely potent offense with strong hitters up and down their lineup. While their pitching comes and goes, they likely just need an average start from James Paxton as their offense should again find success against a weak Cincinnati bullpen.
Lefty James Payton (1-1) makes his fourth start of the season. Paxton is an incredible case study of how to overcome injuries. Prior to this season, he hadn't appeared in a major league game since 2021 and had thrown just 21.1 innings since 2019. He has always been a productive pitcher when healthy – notably compiling a 15-6 record and a 3.82 ERA in his last fully healthy season.
The 34-year-old showed glimpses of that over his first two starts of the year – allowing just three runs in 11 innings of work. He turned heads after striking out nine in his debut and has sat down five hitters in each of the last two starts. The wheels fell off in his most recent outing as the Angels pegged him for five runs in just three innings of work. Things don't get much easier tonight against a sneaky Reds offense that has destroyed left-handed pitching so far.
Final Reds-Red Sox Prediction & Pick
These teams combined for 17 runs in the opener and I don't expect them to slow down anytime soon.
Final Reds-Red Sox Prediction & Pick: Over 10.5 (-112)
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