The UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan Prelims continue to roll from the Inuit Dome in Inglewood as we're set for another betting prediction and pick for this next bout in the Bantamweight (135) Division. Japan's newest prospect Rinya Nakamura will take on Tajikistan's Muin Gafurov as both fighters come in off recent wins. Check our UFC odds series for our Nakamura-Gafurov prediction and pick.
Rinya Nakamura (9-0) is undefeated up to this point and 3-0 in the UFC since 2023. After winning the “Road to the UFC” tournament, he's notched wins over Toshiomi Kazama, Fernie Garcia, and Carlos Vera. He's fought as the significant betting favorite in each one of his fights and this meeting will be no different. Nakamura stands 5-foot-7 with a 68.5-inch reach.
Muin Gafurov (19-6) has gone 1-2 through his first three UFC appearances. After back-to-back losses against strong opponents John Castaneda and Said Nurmagomedov, Gafurov recently notched a win over Kyung Ho Kang via unanimous decision. He'll look for an upset with some momentum on his side. Gafurov stands 5-foot-7 with a 68-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 311 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 311 Odds: Rinya Nakamura-Muin Gafurov Odds
Rinya Nakamura: -520
Muin Gafurov: +390
Over 2.5 rounds: -220
Under 2.5 rounds: +170
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Why Rinya Nakamura Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Carlos Vera – U DEC
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 5 KO/TKO, 1 SUB
Rinya Nakamura was once again dominant in his most recent fight over Carlos Vera, despite the fact his opponent showed great toughness on his part. While Nakamura has had trouble finding the finish in two of his three UFC fights, he has world-class wrestling to lean back on as a former silver-medalist at the Toyko Olympic Games. His fluid and technical game has transitioned well to the UFC and he's a problem yet to be solved in the early stages of his run.
Despite having a wrestling advantage over most of the Bantamweight Division, Nakamura has shown a willingness to stand and strike with opponents as he managed to outpace Vera 73-55 in strikes during their fight. His takedown defense is a perfect 100% and he's landing his own takedowns at a staunching 90%. Expect him to heavily lean on the wrestling as he grinds out another hard win while making it look relatively easily.
Why Muin Gafurov Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Kyung Ho Kang – U DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 7 SUB
Muin Gafurov notched his first win in the UFC and he'll have a ton of newfound confidence heading into this fight. While it wasn't the cleanest of wins with a close judges' decision, Gafurov managed to land the harder shots and certainly wore less damage by the end of the fight. He did a great job of mixing his strikes to all three levels of the body, turning in his first complete performance of his UFC tenure. While he's the significant underdog, I don't expect him to be deterred from fighting this bout aggressively and looking to shock his opponent early.
Gafurov is a competent wrestler in his own right, but he's far better as a sneaky submission threat with seven wins by the method. He's flexible and able to reverse positions on the ground and while he may not be a threat to completely stop the wrestling of Nakamura, he can certainly deter him with constant submission threats off his back. Expect Gafurov to be extremely active any time he's on the ground in this one.
Final Rinya Nakamura-Muin Gafurov Prediction & Pick
This is an intriguing matchup and while Rinya Nakamura is billed as the heavy betting favorite, Muin Gafurov could offer him the most resistance he's seen up to this point. Gafurov is coming in off a great win where he out-struck a good kickboxer in Kyung Ho Kang, so we have to give him the slight edge on the feet.
However, Rinya Nakamura has been greatly improving with his boxing and I expect him to look even more put together on the feet in this fight. His wrestling experience is also the great equalizer in this fight and if he's able to chain takedowns in succession, he could win this fight purely off control. We've seen in the past how effective he is in keeping opponents on the mat once he gets them there.
For our final prediction, we have to roll with the betting favorite in Rinya Nakamura to win this fight. He owns the far better skill set and will likely control large chunks of this fight from the ground. Still, Gafurov will offer much resistance as this one heads to a three-round unanimous decision for the favorite.
Final Rinya Nakamura-Muin Gafurov Prediction & Pick: Rinya Nakamura (-520); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-220)