The Kansas City Royals hit the road to take on the Cincinnati Reds Friday night. Below we will continue our MLB odds series with a Royals-Reds prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
Royals-Reds Projected Starters
Michael Lorenzen vs. Nick Martinez
Michael Lorenzen (5-6) with a 3.79 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 111.2 innings pitched, 83K/52BB, .230 oBA
Last Start: vs. St. Louis Cardinals: No Decision, 4.1 innings, 6 hits, 3 runs, 2 walks, 3 strikeouts
2024 Road Splits: 13 games, 12 starts, 3.99 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 67.2 innings pitched, 51K/32BB, .235 oBA
Nick Martinez (6-5) with a 3.16 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 91 innings pitched, 75K/10BB, .241 oBA
Last Start: at Milwaukee Brewers: No Decision, 7 innings, 1 hit, 0 runs, 0 walks, 7 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 18 games, 4 starts, 4.41 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 49 innings pitched, 42K/7BB, .301 oBA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Royals-Reds Odds
Kansas City Royals: +1.5 (-172)
Moneyline: +112
Cincinnati Reds: -1.5 (+142)
Moneyline: -132
Over: 9.5 (-110)
Under: 9.5 (-110)
How to Watch Royals vs. Reds
Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40 PM PT
TV: Bally Sports Kansas City, Bally Sports Ohio
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why The Royals Will Cover The Spread/Win
Nick Martinez has good overall numbers, but he struggles at Great American Ballpark. His ERA is almost three runs higher at home than it is on the road, and his oBA is almost 150 points higher at Great American Ballpark. It is a very hitter-friendly ballpark, and Martinez has felt that this season. The Royals have to to take advantage of this and put up some runs Friday night.
The Royals are eighth in the MLB in batting average, 11th in slugging percentage, fourth in average exit velocity, and they do not strikeout. Bobby Witt Jr is leading the charge, and he is continuing his case for AL MVP. In August, Witt is batting .347 with a 1.155 OPS, and five home runs. The rest of the Royals really feed off Witt, and Kansas City has been successful because of it. If the Royals can continue to hit well, they will win this game.
Why The Reds Will Cover The Spread/Win
The Reds have already faced Lorenzen this season, but it was early, and when he was with the Texas Rangers. Cincinnati roughed him up in that game, though. They scored five runs on six hits, and handed him the loss. This game is at Great American Ballpark, which is a hitter-friendly park as mentioned. Lorenzen is more of a fly ball pitcher, which will not bode well for him Friday night. With the Reds already having success against Lorenzen, and this game being in Cincinnati, the home team should have no problem scoring runs.
The Reds are playing pretty good baseball this month. Their batting average may not reflect it, but their power numbers have spiked. Through their first 13 games of August, the Reds have hit 27 home runs, and they are scoring over five runs per game. Those are some impressive numbers, and it makes it pretty easy to win. In fact, when the Reds score five runs or more, they have a record of 43-8. When the Reds score at least four runs, they are 52-18. If the Reds can put up those runs, they will win this game.
Final Royals-Reds Prediction & Pick
I would not be surprised to see the Over hit in this game. With that being the case, I am going to take the Reds to win this one at home. I think they will be the better team Friday night.
Click here for more betting news and predictions
Final Royals-Reds Prediction & Pick: Reds ML (-132)
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