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Welcome to the FBS Sam Houston State football! K.C. Keeler and his Bearkats are making the jump to Conference USA this year out of the FCS ranks. It is now time to continue our college football odds series with a Sam Houston State football win total prediction and pick.
Last year was a rare down year for Sam Houston. They were 5-4 as they prepared to make the jump to FBS. Last year players had a decision to make. They knew they would not be eligible to win the conference in 2022 due to their moving to Conference USA, and would not be eligible for a bowl game in 2023, but many redshirted and decided to stay. This puts Sam Houston in a unique situation. Sam Houston sits 29th in returning production this year, with some players who were contributors not being factored into the situation. The Bearkats expect to be a much better team than they put out of the field last year.
K.C. Keeler is a winner as a head coach. He brought division three Rowan to four championship games. Keeler won a Division I-AA title with Delaware in 2003 and lost the title game in 2010. He won another title at Sam Houston in 2020-21 and made the playoffs five other times.
Sam Houston brings in a quality defense that could be one of the best in C-USA. Last year they held opponents to just 19.5 points per game and have a great linebacking core. The secondary has lots of experience and brings in some quality transfers. The only question on defense will be the pass rush, but Christ Murray comes in to help with that. The Bearkats will need to figure out their quarterback situation but did bring in Xavier Ward from Washington State. The wide receivers are unproven, but they bring back a quality back in Zach Hrbacek as they hope to make a successful transition to FBS.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Sam Houston State Over/Under Win Total Odds
Over 3.5 wins: -142
Under 3.5 wins: +116
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Why Sam Houston State Can Win 3.5 Games
Sam Houston has a schedule that provides opportunities to get to four wins. They also have games in which they will be massive underdogs, including the first game of the year. To start the season, Sam Houston will travel to BYU. They are 23-point underdogs here and will be starting 0-1. Air Force comes to town next, and they should be favored by double digits. Air Force is in the top three in terms of odds to win the Mountain West and it is a second loss for Sam Houston. They start 0-1 after a date in Houston before their first potential win of the year.
Jacksonville State is a potential win. This will be a strength-against-strength match-up. Jacksonville State has a solid offense that runs the ball well. The Bearkats have great linebackers that will slow down that and they get their first win of the year. After a game with Liberty, New Mexico State provides another opportunity for a win. This again will require great defense. Diego Pavia is a playmaker, and if they can slow him down, the Bearkats could snag a win. They could go on a winning streak with the next game against FIU. The offense for FIU lost a lot on the line, and at running back. With Lexington Joseph missing the season as well, the FIU offense will not move the ball here and Sam Houston gets a third win.
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UTEP is next, and that could win number four. While they will have the best offensive line in the conference, the defense is dreadful. They also will struggle at skill positions, and not be able to move the ball against this defense. Sam Houston gets their winning streak to four the next week against Kennesaw State. Kennesaw State is focused on next year. Much like Sam Houston last year, they will move to Conference USA in 2024. They get a fifth win here. They could grab six against Louisiana Tech. This would be an upset but is also their last major chance for a win. If Hank Bachmeier is not what the Bulldogs expect, and the pass defense struggles, this could be a win.
Why Sam Houston State Can Not Win 3.5 Games
While Sam Houston has a cap of six wins, they also have a floor well below that. First, Sam Houston most likely starts 0-3 on the year with their first win on the year being an option with Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks have a stellar offense. They have a top-quality running game that is looking a lot like what Rich Rodriguez put out at West Virginia. It will not reach those same heights but will be good. It is a toss-up game with a good defense against a good offense and could easily go the other way.
Secondly, is New Mexico State. While this team will rely heavily on Deigo Pavia, they have some solid pieces around them. Jerry Kill is a winner and consistently improves teams. Meanwhile, the defense is improving. With a suspect offense for the Bearkats, they could easily lose this game. Thirdly, If FIU can figure out their offense, they could hold Sam Houston to few enough points to snag a win. Mike McIntyre has made a habit of winning coin-flip games in his career. The defense will be improved and by this point in the season, could beat Sam Houston.
Fourth is UTEP, they have some potential pieces around that offensive line. Furthermore, the defense has some quality. If Sam Houston struggles to score, the difference could be the quality offensive line. Finally, there is Lousiana Tech. The Bulldogs have an offense that started to come together at times last year, and they brought in a lot of new players. Hank Bachmeier will lead the team at quarterback, and with Smoke Harris, Decoldest Crawford, and Cyrus Allen, they could put up a lot of points in a hurry.
Final Sam Houston State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick
Sam Houston could be in for another rough season. They will start 0-3 before their match-up with Jacksonville State. They will lose to Jacksonville State as well, making their first win of the year FIU on October 18th. Sam Houston will pick up another win against Kennesaw State, but that is it. It is a 2-10 season in their first year in FBS.
Final Sam Houston State Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 3.5 (+116)
