It was a four-win season in Mike MacIntyre's first year at FIU and they look to improve on that in 2023. It is now time to continue our college football odds series with an FIU football win total prediction and pick.

FIU was projected to finish last in Conference USA last year at CUSA Media Day. They managed to beat that, finishing ahead of Charlotte and Louisiana Tech. The conference looks very different this year though. UTSA, North Texas, Charlotte, FAU, Rice, and UAB all left to join the American Athletic Conference. Joining Conference USA will be Liberty and New Mexico State, who were both FBS independent schools last year. Also, Sam Houston and Jacksonville State join from the FCS level. Next year, Kennesaw State will be joining as well.  While nine teams will be playing in the conference only seven will be playing for the conference title this year, with Sam Houston and Jacksonville State ineligible.

Head coach Mike MacIntyre has a record of turning around programs. After winning just one game in 2010 at San Jose State, by 2012, the program was 10-2 and ranked in the top 25. He then moved on to lead Colorado to a four-win season in 2013, before taking them to ten wins and a top-25 ranking in 2016. Now, he will be looking to do the same with the Panthers.

The offense lost plenty of production in the offseason though. It was already ranked 116th in offense last year and will be replacing three offensive linemen, as well as the top two receiving targets. Top running back Lexington Joseph will miss the entire year with a new injury suffered in the spring. The defense will be improved though. They started a lot of young players last year and grabbed a few key starters in the transfer portal. The line will be able to get pressure on the quarterback, and with an easier schedule than last year, this team could make strides in the 2023 campaign.

Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Football Odds: FIU Over/Under Win Total Odds

Over 3.5 wins: -110

Under 3.5 wins: -110

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Why FIU Can Win 3.5 Games 

The FIU schedule begins in conference play with Louisana Tech. This was a double overtime win for FIU last year. Louisiana brings back a ton on offense though, and while the defense for FIU should improve, they will not have enough to slow down Louisana Tech. The first win of the season will have to wait until the next week when FIU hosts Maine. Maine is an FBS team, and not a very good one.

FIU gets their first win here before facing former conference foe North Texas. The Mean Green will be heavily favored and FIU will drop to 1-2, again due to a struggling defense. UCONN is their last game before their bye week, and they are not the rollover they once were. Jim Mora Jr. has turned the program around. They are solid on both sides of the ball, especially on the line. With FIU break in a new line this year, it is 1-4 going into the bye.

Conference newcomer Liberty is next. They will be a favorite to win the conference in their first year. Jamey Chadwell joins the program taking over for Hugh Freeze. They have a quality offense, led by some great running backs. On defense, Liberty is one of the best at taking away the ball and getting to the quarterback. It is 1-5 and FIU needs a winning streak. That starts with New Mexico State. Jerry Kill has the team improving but this team racked up wins against sub-par opponents. They will not get that chance this year. UTEP comes next, and while they will have the best offensive line in the conference, the defense is dreadful. By this point in the season, the FIU offense should be in full swing and they get a third win.

Win number four comes the next week. Sam Houston decided to redshirt a lot of their players last year and was uncharacteristically bad. Still, the jump up to FCS play is big, and it will be a struggle for the squad. This should be a close game, with many talented players going to Sam Houston, but without a quality quarterback, FIU takes advantage. FIU gets further over the mark against Jacksonville State. Jacksonville State is a grind-it-out football team, which is odd for a Rich Rodriguez-led squad. They do not make a ton of big plays, and if they cannot against FIU they will lose.

The winning streak ends there. FIU will lose the last three games of the season. Middle Tennessee is a quality school and will be competing for the CUSA title. The last week of the season is against the CUSA favorite Western Kentucky. In between is a trip to Arkansas which is sure to be a loss.

Why FIU Can Not Win 3.5 Games

FIU sits last in odds to win the conference this year and for good reason. First, a look at the non-conference schedule only provides one win. They will beat Maine in week one after facing Louisana Tech in week zero. After that though, North Texas, UCONN, and Arkansas will all provide losses. FIU also face the three best teams in C-USA with two of them being at home. In games in which you are expected to lose, it would be much better to have those on the road. Both Western Kentucky and Liberty are home games. These are two games in which they will most likely be double-digit underdogs, and it is a waste of a home game.

The other major concerns are some of the games they could win turning into losses. First is Louisiana Tech. While they won this game last year, they will not do it again. Not with what Louisana is returning on offense against a defense that is bad. Next is New Mexico State. Jerry Kill is a winner and that has rubbed off on Diego Pavia. Watching their bowl game last year, Pavia single-handedly won that game. He has a great arm, and if a defense is not careful, he will take off and get great yards.

Sam Houston and Jacksonville State will also provide some trouble. Sam Houston went all in for this year, last year. They sat their best players for the entire season in preparation for the jump-up. They have a solid offensive line and are one of the best wide receivers in the conference. He will be a lot for FIU to handle. Jacksonville State has a top-quality stable of running backs which will be an issue for a lot of teams this year.

Final FIU Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

This is going to be a tough year for FIU. They will get a win over Maine, but the winning almost ends there. They will not win another non-conference game, and in conference play, the only win will be at home to Jacksonville State. It is a 2-10 season for them, so take the under.

Final FIU Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: UInder 3.5 (-110)