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San Diego State faces their second straight Pac-12 opponent, visiting Oregon State. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a San Diego State-Oregon State prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
San Diego State enters the game at 2-1 on the season. In the first game, it was a win over Ohio. The Aztecs knocked out Ohio's start quarterback, Kurtis Rourke, allowing them to stifle the Ohio offense and take the win. In game two, it was an FCS opponent as the Aztecs took care of Idaho State. Then, they hosted UCLA. The Aztecs started strong. There was a big play from UCLA, scoring on a one-play 81-yard drive, but they answered back. Jalen Mayden threw to Mekhi Shaw for a score to tie the game in the first. After two straight UCLA touchdowns, San Diego State made it a 21-10 game with a Jack Browning field goal. That was the end of their scoring though. They would fall 35-10.
Meanwhile, Oregon State enters the game at 2-0. The Beavers opened the season with a 42-17 win over San Jose State. It was a dominating performance, as they held San Jose State to just three points in the first three quarters, and DJ Uiagalelei scored five times. Game two was more of the same. Uiagalelei scored three more times, as Oregon State won 55-7 over UC Davis. This may be their biggest test so far this year, as they prepare to host San Diego State.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: San Diego State-Oregon State Odds
San Diego State: +24.5 (-105)
Oregon State: -24.5 (-115)
Over: 48.5 (-110)
Under: 48.5 (-110)
How to Watch San Diego State vs. Oregon State
TV: FS1
Stream: Fox Sports App
Time: 3:30 PM ET/ 12:30 PM PT
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why San Diego State Will Cover The Spread
For the Aztecs to cover, Jalen Mayden has to play well. This year he is 50-84 passing for 450 yards and three touchdowns. While he has made some big throws, he has to take better care of the ball. This year he has thrown three interceptions with a fumble. He has also thrown another six turnover-worthy passes in those games. The other issue for him has been pressure. So far this year in 97 dropbacks, Mayden has been pressured 40 times. He has taken just six sacks while scrambling seven times for positive yardage, but the offensive line must play better this week.
Also, Mayden has to be a factor in the ground game. Last week he was limited to just 27 yards on the ground, and with him being a primary runner for the team, that is not enough yards. Further, 21 of those yards were on scramble plays, meaning only six yards came on designed runs. The week before that, he scrambled three times and ran another six, bringing in 128 yards and two scores. For the run game to be better two factors need to work together. First, Kenan Christon has to be solid. He ran for just 27 yards on nine carries last week, while having only one long run over ten yards. Second, they need quality run blocking. Last week, Christon's average point of first contact was behind the line of scrimmage.
On defense, the pass rush has to be able to contain DJ Uiagalelei. To do that, they must get consistent pressure and make contact. Last week, San Diego State had just 13 pressured on the day with two sacks. Zyrus Fiaseu had one of those sacks and also batted a ball down at the line of scrimmage. He was great in the game as well. He has seven tackles, six stops for offensive failures, and caused two fumbles. The fumbles will be a key in this game. If San Diego State cannot force turnovers, this will not be a close game.
Why Oregon State Will Cover The Spread
Oregon State will go as DJ Uiagalelei goes in this game. He has been solid in his two games this year. Uiagalelei has gone 27-37 passing for 341 yards and five touchdowns. He has yet to throw a turnover-worthy pass and has only had to throw the ball away twice all year. Further, he has been protected well. This year he has been pressured 14 times on 40 dropbacks, with just one sack, and one scramble. Each other time, he was able to get the ball off and make the pass. Another major aspect of Uiagalelei is his ground game. He is not going to rack up a lot of yardage, but he is great in short-yardage situations. Uiagalelei has scored three times on the ground this year, all on designed runs.
Oregon State will also look to be solid on the ground again in this game. Against the more comparable opponent, San Jose State, Damien Martinez had a great game. He ran 19 times for 145 yards in the game. He was protected well, with an average depth of first contact over three yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Further, he had seven carries over ten yards in the game, while also causing four missed tackles. If he can run like that again, Oregon State will not only be able to get the lead but hold onto it with ease.
Finally, the defense has to continue to be solid. That starts with their leader Kitan Oladapo. This year he has allowed just three yards after the catch when he is on target. He also gets into the backfield. Last game he was targeted three times and allowed two receptions for a total of negative one yards. He has also been a tackling machine, with eight tackles in two games, without a miss. Combining that with his four stops for offensive failures, and his sack, Oladapo commands the defense and will cause issues for San Diego State.
Final San Diego State-Oregon State Prediction & Pick
If Kurtis Rourke does not get hurt in the first game, there is a high possibility that San Diego State is 1-2 going into this game. Further, when they had to play solid quarterback play against UCLA, they struggled. They did not get good pressure and allowed plenty of big throws. DJ Uiagalelei is better than what UCLA has, plus Oregon State has a top-quality running back. San Diego State lost by 25 to UCLA. They will lose by more than that in this one. Take the Beavers in this game.
Final San Diego State-Oregon State Prediction & Pick: Oregon State -24.5 (-115)