We're set for our final betting prediction and pick of Noche UFC 306 as the action finally reaches our headlining bout in the Bantamweight (135) Division. Rivals will meet for a championship showdown as current Champion Sean O'Malley will square off against No. 1 contender Merab Dvalishvili. Check out our UFC odds series for our O'Malley-Dvalishvili prediction and pick.
Sean O'Malley (18-1) has gone 10-1-0-1 under the UFC en route to becoming its Bantamweight Champion. He's had one of the most meteoric rises to stardom and has only been backing it up with his sensational performances. He most recently beat Chito Vera in his first title defense and will now face his No. 1 contender in a rivalry that's been brewing for some time. O'Malley stands 5'11” with a 72-inch reach.
Merab Dvalishvili (17-4) comes into this fight with a 10-2 record in the UFC since 2017. He's on one of the UFC's longest active winning streaks at 10 consecutive fights and he's most recently beaten Jose Aldo, Petr Yan, and Henry Cejudo all in dominant fashion, so this title shot against Sean O'Malley has been a longtime coming for the challenger. Dvalishvili stands 5'6″ with a 68-inch reach.
Here are the Noche UFC 306 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
Noche UFC 306 Odds: Sean O'Malley-Merab Dvalishvili Odds
Sean O'Malley: -135
Merab Dvalishvili: +114
Over 4.5 rounds: -130
Under 4.5 rounds: +100
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Why Sean O'Malley Will Win
Sean O'Malley has had this fight circled on his calendar since he took the belt from Aljamain Sterling and he'll finally get a chance to test himself against a true “boogeyman” of the division. Despite his opponent's reputation a tireless wrestler, Sean O'Malley is supremely confident in his ability to stuff the takedowns and keep this fight on the feet where he plans to turn in a striking masterclass. O'Malley is easily on the shortlist of most talented strikers in the UFC and his ability to throw feints and unique looks to bait opponents will work perfectly against an eager fighter like Dvalishvili. O'Malley is the ultimate counter-puncher and technician in finding openings, so expect him to be ready Merab's forward-marching style throughout these early rounds.
Despite his sensational abilities in the striking and knack for viral knockouts, Sean O'Malley is actually very skilled in the grappling, constantly competing in submission jiu jitsu matches and working on his takedown defense throughout his camps. His opponent has been known to shoot more takedowns than anyone in the division's history, so O'Malley should be fully expecting to work his grappling along the fence for this one. With how crafty he is, we shouldn't be surprised if we see O'Malley jump for a guillotine or try an unorthodox arm or wrist lock to reverse positions and find Dvalishvili's back. It's worth noting that Dvalishvili's last loss in the UFC came to a submission choke.
Why Merab Dvalishvili Will Win
Merab Dvalishvili, in reality, should have gotten this title shot quite some time ago if it weren't for his best friend Aljamain Sterling holding the belt prior to this. However, this was all part of the plan and after years of helping Sterling remain at the top of his game, Dvalishvili will now receive his shot at UFC gold. He hasn't lost since 2018, winning his last 10 consecutive fights with nine coming by unanimous decision. He's most known for his chain wrestling and ability to control opponents from the ground, but it's his supreme cardio that really sets him apart from any fighter in the UFC. He was able to land five takedowns on gold medalist Henry Cejudo and attempted a UFC-record 49 takedowns in beating Petr Yan. Look for the same tactics to be a part of his usual approach to Sean O'Malley.
There's no question that Merab Dvalishvili shouldn't choose to stand and strike with O'Malley for most of this fight, but he may be crazy enough to test his striking range throughout the first rounds in order to get a feel for the reach discrepancy. Expect Dvalishvili to do a ton of work in grappling O'Malley along the fence and working to negate his offense. The more squeeze and pressure he can put on O'Malley, the more opportunities he'll have for the bigger moments and swings of momentum in his favor.
Final Sean O'Malley-Merab Dvalishvili Prediction & Pick
This Main Event is going to be very interesting given it's a striker vs. grappler at the very highest level of both disciplines. Sean O'Malley has quickly become one of the most dangerous snipers in the sport and he's also shown his grit after winning and defending the belt. Merab Dvalishvili is one of the UFC's most active wrestlers of all time and he arguably has the craziest cardio out of anyone on the roster. Expect both men to have their moments throughout this fight.
I believe the biggest factor in this fight will be the quickness and speed for Sean O'Malley in staying on his feet and transitioning through the takedown attempts. While he doesn't want to spend time on the ground, he should feel comfortable from there knowing the jiu jitsu he has in his back pocket.
This fight should be interesting from the start, but I suspect Sean O'Malley will stun the crowd here with a knockout or even submission finish upon one of Dvalishvili's entries. The moment seems too bright for him not to perform and he's extremely confident in finding Merab's chin during this one.
Final Sean O'Malley-Merab Dvalishvili Prediction & Pick: Sean O'Malley (-135)
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