The “Group of Death” for Euro 2024 looks to be Group B, with Spain, Italy, Croatia, and Albania making up the four teams. Croatia won't have it easy in this tournament, which is unfortunate after their semifinal run in the 2022 World Cup. Croatia's golden generation will end after this tournament, and their time may have passed. The opposite is the case for Spain, as their 2022 World Cup ended devastatingly in a loss to Morocco. It is time to continue our Euro 2024 odds series with a Spain-Croatia prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Spain has a new manager in Luis de la Fuente, but don't expect Spanish football as you know it to change under de la Fuente. He has been the manager of the Spanish youth team since 2013, and the youth team plays in the same style as the seniors. Spain will use a possession style of play, as we see with plenty of teams in La Liga. Spain dominated qualifying, winning seven games and losing a lone match to Scotland.
Croatia enters this match in good form, with two wins this month in friendlies. Their most impressive victory was a 2-1 defeat of Portugal on June 8th. It was an interesting qualifying tournament for Croatia, as they dominated Latvia and Armenia but struggled to generate offense against Turkey and Wales. There may not be a lot of offense from the Croatians when they play Italy and Spain, but a battle with Albania could be an intriguing matchup.
Here are the 2024 Euros odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
2024 Euros Odds: Spain-Croatia Odds
Spain: -110
Croatia: +340
Draw: +240
Over 2.5 goals: +114
Under 2.5 goals: -138
How to Watch Spain vs. Croatia
Time: noon ET/9 AM PT
TV: FOX, TSN
Stream: (Click Here for Free Trial)
Why Spain Will Win
Croatia didn't impress with their play against stronger teams in qualifying. Croatia had 10.9 expected goals in four games against Latvia and Armenia but just 5.2 expected goals in four matches against Turkey and Wales. The problem for Croatia is that Turkey and Wales are nowhere near the caliber of Spain, which presents their biggest test in competition in a long time. Croatia looked good in friendlies recently, but it'll be tough to beat Spain at the Euros if they continue their offensive output from qualifying.
Spain will fall later in the tournament when they play teams that will press and capitalize in transition. Luckily for them, the only team they have to worry about doing this in group play is Italy. Croatia doesn't have the speed or youth to run on Spain, which will help them settle into their possession style. Spain had 2.51 expected goals/90 minutes and 17.8 shots/90 minutes in qualifying, an offensive output that Croatia will not contend with.
Why Croatia Will Win
Croatia won't press on Spain. They'll let Spain hold the ball in possession, stay back in a defensive shell, and hope for a mistake to capitalize. Croatia can't get into a shootout with Spain if you consider their expected goals against Turkey and Wales in qualifying. Croatia may be looking to hold on long enough to grind out a victory and may be content with a draw in this difficult opening match.
Final Spain-Croatia Prediction & Pick
Spain's offense will persevere in this matchup. Croatia won't make it easy for Spain to score too many goals in this matchup. It feels like a game that could be scoreless at half, with Spain having to push for a goal late. Take Spain to win this one 1-0 or 2-0 and hit both bets.
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Final Spain-Croatia Prediction & Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-138) & Spain ML (-110)