The Colorado Avalanche are looking to take care of business on the road in Game 6 and close out the Stanley Cup Finals against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Sunday night. We're back with our NHL odds series with an Avalanche-Lightning prediction and pick.
The Avs had the chance to take home the Cup on their home ice in Game 5 but were unsuccessful in doing so, losing 3-2 on Friday night. The Avalanche never led in the game but were always within striking distance of the Lightning, at least until Ondrej Palat sealed their fate with a late goal in the third period to give Tampa a lead.
The series has been incredibly back and forth, as two of the first five games have gone to overtime. In fact, the Avs have only won one game at the end of regulation during the Stanley Cup Finals, with two of their three wins coming via OT.
The Lightning kept the series alive on Friday night and will be in a similarly difficult situation on Sunday. Can they extend the series to Game 7 with a win? Let's find out as we dive into our Avalanche-Lightning predictions and picks.
Here are the Avalanche-Lightning NHL Odds, Courtesy of FanDuel
NHL Odds: Avalanche-Lightning Odds
Colorado Avalanche: -1.5 (+205) (-114 ML)
Tampa Bay Lightning: +1.5 (-255) (-105 ML)
Over: 5.5 (-124)
Under: 5.5 (+102)
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Why The Avalanche Can Cover The Spread/Win
The Avalanche certainly have what it takes to cover the spread against the Lightning, even on the road against the Lightning. A -1.5 spread for a road team in the Stanley Cup Finals is pretty extreme, but if there's any team capable of running up the score on an opponent, it's the Avalanche.
The fast-paced Avalanche have proven throughout the playoffs that they can score goals in bunches. Not only that, they are relentless on attack, constantly looking to find an open man for a shot on target to disrupt the goaltender. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been nothing if not busy throughout the Stanley Cup Finals, and while he's been sensational between the sticks for the most part, it wouldn't be shocking if the Avs managed to score a few goals on Sunday.
The Moneyline certainly feels like a more realistic bet for the Avs in Game 6, and at -114, the odds aren't bad. Considering all but two of the games in this series have been one-goal games, betting the spread feels like a risk unless you're expecting a blowout. Needing just one game to clinch their status as champions, the Avs were certainly feeling the nerves ahead of Game 5, something Mikko Rantanen admitted. Now that they've tasted the moment, they should be locked in and ready to show out in Game 6.
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Why The Lightning Can Cover The Spread/Win
In the two games in Tampa Bay during the Stanley Cup Finals, the Avalanche are being outscored by the Lightning 8-5. While Colorado did win a game in Tampa Bay during the series, they needed overtime and controversial no-call and subsequent goal from Nazem Kadri in order to secure the victory. That's not to say it was a fluke win, but there's certainly reason to be optimistic about the Lightning at home.
Vasilesvkiy is one of the best goaltenders in the world, and he steps up on the biggest stages, particularly when the Lightning are in a rut. Back in Tampa facing elimination, there's perhaps no bigger game for Vasilevskiy to prove he has the clutch gene. With Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov constantly looking for openings in Colorado's defense, the Lightning will look to continue getting on the scoresheet early against Darcy Kuemper and the Avs.
Tampa Bay is considered the underdogs on their home ice, so the odds on Lightning Moneyline are certainly enticing. There simply isn't enough value at -255 on the spread to justify putting it in anything other than a parlay.
Final Avalanche-Lightning Prediction & Pick
This game figures to be tight throughout, so we're going to steer clear of betting the spread. The Moneyline feels up for grabs too, with both teams needing wins in crucial spots on Sunday. Thus, for our Avalanche-Lightning pick, we're going to take the over at 5.5 goals with odds of -124. The Avs are one of the most potent offensive teams in the NHL, and while there have been just five goals in each of the past two games, we're expecting to see more offense on Sunday.
Final Avalanche-Lightning Prediction and Pick: Over 5.5 (-124)
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