A Pittsburgh Steelers Week 11 matchup against their AFC North rival Cleveland Browns will always be an intense one. But this game in particular, with the teams entering with identical 6-3 records, will certainly have some extra edge to it.
Both of these teams are in the thick of the AFC standings because of strong defenses. Both are also trying to overcome limitations at the quarterback position.
For the Browns, losing Deshaun Watson for the season to a shoulder injury caps the ceiling of their offense. Cleveland will have to persevere over the next eight games by riding its defense and hoping whatever backup passer it calls on can provide competent play at QB.
The Steelers, meanwhile, are hoping that second-year QB Kenny Pickett improves as the season goes on. Pickett has gone five consecutive games without a turnover. His passing numbers have been light, especially in Pittsburgh's last three games. But the team has been victorious in four of those five games. If Pickett can limit mistakes and pick his spots, Mike Tomlin can likely make the rest work.
Two rivals following the same blueprint. We would warn you to prepare for a low-scoring slugfest, but that probably doesn't count as bold enough. So let's try some other Steelers Week 11 predictions.
*Watch NFL games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
More turnovers than touchdowns for Browns offense
Gotta feel for Browns QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. A veteran passer would struggle against Mike Tomlin's defense. A rookie thrown into the middle of a divisional race facing this T.J. Watt-led unit? Yikes.
For a preview of how Thompson-Robinson's day is likely to go, check out the Browns' game in Week 4 against the Baltimore Ravens. Forced to turn to Thompson-Robinson with Watson nursing a shoulder injury, the rookie passer completed 19-of-36 passes for 121 yards. He was intercepted three times and sacked four times.
Things likely won't get better for DTR against the Steelers. Watt and Alex Highsmith will cause havoc all day, forcing Thompson-Robinson into rushed decisions and bad choices. Meanwhile, with the passing game severely compromised, coach Kevin Stefanski shouldn't be shy about sending out the field goal unit and taking points when he can.
Touchdowns will be tough to come by.
Harris, Warren both find pay dirt
In the last four games, the Steelers have asked Pickett to throw the ball no more than 30 times in a single game. Not coincidentally, in the last two weeks, both Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren have earned double-digit rushing attempts. Both backs found the end zone against the Packers in Week 10.
That feels more like a trend that will continue as opposed to an anomaly. Clearly, Matt Canada's offense is going to rely on the running game as the season wears on. Pickett can keep Cleveland honest with Diontae Johnson and George Pickens running routes. But when Tomlin needs six points, expect the rushing game to step up.
There is a marked difference between Harris and Warren though. The former is likely to get the call on the goal line, a punch-in from short yardage. The latter has the speed and shiftiness to spring a run from further down the field. It's a potent 1-2 combo.
Steelers grind out win over Browns
These teams really do feel like mirror images of one another, led by strong defenses with All-Pro edge rushers (Watt for Pittsburgh, Myles Garrett for Cleveland). If you told each team they would score 24 points on Sunday, both would probably take that outcome happily.
So, deciding factor? There are two.
One is that the Steelers likely trust Kenny Pickett more than the Browns trust Dorian Thompson-Robinson. This is year two for Pickett, so he's had a lot thrown at him. Does he still struggle at times? Undoubtedly. But he's not a rookie who wasn't supposed to be on the field this season. There's a difference.
The other thing to know before this game? Mike Tomlin's record against rookie quarterbacks. Hint: it's good for Pittsburgh.
Tomlin's teams are 24-5 when facing a rookie QB, per Cleveland.com's Mary Kay Cabot. And please don't point us to C.J. Stroud's Week 4 performance against the Steelers. We know, and it's not the same. Stroud has been a day one starter as the draft's second overall pick. DTR was a fifth round pick who spent training camp as the Browns' third QB.
In this version of grind-it-out football, Pickett is more likely to make a big play when needed. And Tomlin will overwhelm Thompson-Robinson enough to earn his team a victory. First to 27 points wins.
Follow Us
Subscribe