It's only one, two, three more days until Golden State Warriors superstar Stephen Curry has the ball in his hands with a brand new core of players and brand new challenge ahead of him after five straight runs to the NBA Finals.
Here are three last-second predictions about the two-time MVP's upcoming 2019-20 season.
3. Expect yet another career high in 3-pointers attempted
After regressing during his first two seasons with Kevin Durant as part of the Warriors' core, Stephen Curry surpassed the high-volume mark of 11.2 attempts from the 3-point line he had in his unanimous MVP season, attempting 11.7 shots a night from distance — a mark he will once again surpass.
Curry will no longer have to share shots with Kevin Durant and won't have Klay Thompson to pass the ball to until February or March, resulting in a much higher volume from the perimeter.
That doesn't necessarily mean more makes, as Curry's looks will be more contested than ever, now that he has developed the reputation as the premier 3-point shooter in the league and won't have as much help.
If there is a season in which Curry can fall below the 40% threshold he has been able to shoot it at during the first 10 years of his career, it is 2019-20 — where his looks will be hounded by defenders who no longer have to worry about another two equally dangerous snipers who can catch fire.
Curry could be trending toward a Harden-esque 13 3-point attempts per game and might flirt with the 40% mark for the first time in his illustrious career, never having shot below the 41.1% he shot during his first season with Durant.
2. Expect more trips to the foul line
It's almost a shame that one of the best free-throw shooters of all time only got to the foul line 4.2 times per game last season, but expect him to shoot about seven free throws per game in this upcoming 2019-20 season.
Stephen Curry has looked more aggressive in the preseason, which is by no means an accident. After missing his first-ever free throw in the Chase Center, Curry went 7-of-7 for the rest of that game against the Los Angeles Lakers, a clean 6-of-6 in a 40-point destruction of the Minnesota Timberwolves, 2-of-2 in the second game against the Lakers, and 8-of-8 in the last preseason game against them after sitting out the third for rest purposes.
The combined results? A blistering 95.8% clip from the foul line after knocking down 23 straight foul shots.
Curry has been deft with the use of his handle to create opportunities inside, as well as using the defenders flying at him as opportunities that earn a three-shot trip to the charity stripe — rendering the most efficient play in basketball — a series of three uncontested shots by the NBA's best free-throw shooter.
1. Expect a career high in fouls and turnovers
Klay Thompson's absence brings along plenty of opportunities for Stephen Curry, but it also brings a bag of detriments. While it takes away one of the NBA's best perimeter options, it also subtracts one of the most consistent defenders outside of the paint, which will only result in teams targeting Curry on defense more.
Head coach Steve Kerr has already dealt with this in the playoffs, but this could be a potential reality through 82 games, as his foul trouble could have caustic effects throughout the regular season as the leading scorer.
While teams could also target another poor defender in D'Angelo Russell, taking Curry away symbolizes taking away any chances of a comeback and opportunities of the two-time MVP catching fire at a moment's notice.
Curry's offensive load will be the highest since that 2015-16 season as well, but he will have to face it with a team full of new faces. His passes will result in turnovers early on, and some others in misses by those not quite used to his flair.
The 31-year-old stayed at a steady 2.4 fouls per game during the regular season, but that ballooned to 3.1 per game in the postseason. He averaged 3.5 fouls per game in the first round against the Los Angeles Clippers and a whopping 4.0 fouls per game against the Houston Rockets, who are masters of pick-and-roll switching to target the likes of Curry.
His offensive load alone will result in a few offensive fouls called here and there, which will add to both categories — something that's to be expected with the increased volume he will see as the season starts in a few days.
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