Syracuse vs. Duke prediction, odds, pick for Men's College Basketball game - 1/2/2024

Ranked 16th overall in the nation, Jon Scheyer’s Duke Blue Devils will take on Red Autry’s Syracuse Orange. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Syracuse-Duke prediction and pick.

For the first time in my life, Syracuse is not running their 2-3 zone. First-year head coach Red Autry has Syracuse playing a new brand of basketball. Led by high-usage sophomore guard Judah Mintz, the Orange have new life in Upstate New York. 

Syracuse comes to Cameron Indoor on a five-game winning streak most recently taking down Pittsburgh this past Saturday. The emergence of 6-6 sophomore Quadir Copeland has given Judah Mintz the backcourt support he has needed through the first two months of the season. Autry’s bunch has yet to lose a bad game, with losses to Tennessee, Gonzaga, and Virginia all coming away from home. 

Standing in their way, the Duke Blue Devils have rattled off four straight with a marquee win over Scott Drew’s Baylor Bears on a neutral court. The Blue Devils have missed the rim protection of Dereck Lively and have battled through Tyrese Proctor injuries to this point. Thankfully for Jon Scheyer, the freshman class has fit in nicely. Especially 6-3 guard Jared McCain and 6-5 wing Caleb Foster. 

Surprisingly, both Syracuse and Duke lost their ACC openers. Now with both teams sitting at 0-1 in ACC play, this already hostile game becomes all that more important. Ever since Syracuse joined the ACC the rivalry has been phenomenal. I remember watching the first game of this rivalry back in 2013-14 when Boeheim got ejected because of the late referee mistakes. Then you have the John Gillon buzzer beater in front of thirty thousand fans in 2016-17. Then you can not forget Syracuse’s overtime win when Michael Gbinije went for 32 to beat #1 Duke at Cameron Indoor.

Unfortunately, the rivalry has fizzled out as of late with Duke winning the past eight matchups all by double digits. Is this the year the rivalry gets revived?

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Syracuse-Duke Odds

Syracuse: +14.5 (-110)

Duke: -14.5 (-110)

Over: 152.5 (-110)

Under: 152.5 (-110)

How to Watch Syracuse vs. Duke 

Time: 9:00 pm ET/ 6:00 pm PT

TV: ESPN

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Syracuse Will Cover The Spread

Initially, the numbers would suggest the Orange are about to get crushed on the glass. I disagree though. Pittsburgh is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation. The Panthers are just overflowing with height and length around the rim. They rank 5th nationally in defensive rebound rate and 49th in offensive rebound rate. For context, Syracuse ranks 282nd in defensive rebound rate and 214th in offensive. Well, the Orange just won the rebounding battle over Pitt (40-39). 

I attribute this sudden change in rebound rate to 6-8 sophomore Maliq Brown, 6-9 junior Benny Williams, and 6-6 sophomore Quadir Copeland playing increased minutes. While 7-4 junior Naheem McLeod can block plenty of shots, he struggles to catch the ball and rebound. The more Autry leans into the lineup he played against Pittsburgh, the better the rebounding. Where the numbers suggest Duke will feast on the offensive boards I predict that will not be the case at all. Expect a dead even rebounding battle. In fact, I think the numbers here are so far off that there is a few points of value on the Syracuse spread.

Lastly, the Duke rim protection is not the same without Dereck Lively. We did not see that become much of a factor against Baylor as the Bears play much more perimeter-based. This Syracuse team is made in transition and getting Mintz going downhill to the rim. Last year Duke had a block rate of 12.2% which ranked 38th nationally. This year they have regressed to 11.2%, only 96th nationally. I predict the Duke rim protection regression to play into the Syracuse downhill attack. 

Why Duke Will Cover The Spread

Chris Bell has hit a shooting slump. Over the past four games, Bell is just 2/11 (18.2%) from three-point range. Sophomore shooter Justin Taylor has also slowed down lately. Against seven power five opponents, Taylor has yet to post an offensive rating above 100. Unfortunately, he recently saw his two lowest-minute performances of the season against Oregon (18) and Pitt (15). I mention Taylor because he is second on the team in made threes with 17, only behind Chris Bell (26). Syracuse’s two best outside shooters so far are both in the middle of regression.

Secondly, Duke is currently allowing opponents to shoot about 3% better from long-range. Last year, the Blue Devils ranked 21st nationally in three-point defense allowing opponents to shoot 30.5%. This year, through twelve games they rank 63rd nationally allowing 33.1%. I attribute much of this regression to the ankle sprain Tyrese Proctor suffered. Proctor missed the entire month of December before returning last game against Queens. 

Per EvanMiya, Proctor is by far the best guard defender Duke has. Where none of Jeremy Roach, Jared McCain, or Caleb Foster have a defensive performance rating above 1.13, Proctor boasts a 1.64. In summary, Proctor is vital for the Blue Devils guard defending. I mention this because Syracuse’s Judah Mintz ranks 29th nationally in usage rate. College basketball is a game of matchups, and having Tyrese Proctor back to help defend Mintz is very important. 

Final Syracuse-Duke Prediction & Pick

Initially, I loved the Syracuse side due to the rebounding numbers being so far off from what I think they will be. But after seeing the Syracuse three-point shooting regression it scared me off. I do think there is slight value on the Orange, so if you are determined to take a side I would suggest taking the points with the Orange.

We have to remember that both of these teams are 0-1 in the ACC making this game extra important. Combine the idea that the rebounding battle will be dead even with the fact that Syracuse has really struggled to shoot from outside, and I start to like the under. I see a nasty, scrappy game where the Duke offense stalls in moments where they are trying to incorporate a previously injured Tyrese Proctor into the flow. A Blue Devils defense that can sag into the paint to deny the dribble drive without much of an outside threat. Give me the under here in an ACC fistfight.

Final Syracuse-Duke Prediction & Pick: Under 152.5 (-110)