It's likely that by now you've heard that 2024 NBA Draft class is being panned by draft experts as one of the weakest in recent memory. In truth, this has been the case ever since the San Antonio Spurs selected Victor Wembanyama 1st overall last year. Every few years this just happens to be how things shake out, but even still, it's worth taking just as deep of a dive into who the prospects are whose NBA dreams are about to become a reality, because the NBA Draft is not an exact science. You never know who you might be able to find and at what pick you might be able to get them. Take for example, New York Knicks guard Jalen Brunson:
Just a few months removed from winning a second NCAA Title in three years, Villanova point guard Jalen Brunson was selected by the Dallas Mavericks with the 33rd pick in the 2018 NBA Draft. Brunson, now a perennial All-NBA candidate, was chosen after a five pick run of the following players: Jacob Evans, Dzanan Musa, Omari Spellman, Elle Okobo, and Jevon Carter. See, by no means is this an exact science.
The one thing that you can count on with the NBA Draft is that there are going to be instances like this every single year. Zach Collins and Luke Kennard went before Donovan Mitchell and Bam Adebayo in 2017. Mario Hezonja, Willie Cauley-Stein, and Emmanuel Mudiay went 5th, 6th and 7th in a draft in which Devin Booker went 13th. And take a look at the long list of names that were selected between NBA double-double king Domantas Sabonis and multiple-time NBA All-Star Pascal Siakam:
This is all to say that when you're watching the Final Four this weekend, don't get caught up in the fact that there are only two likely lottery picks among the four teams. Because you never know who is going to pop once they get to the NBA.
Stephon Castle – UConn Huskies, Freshman, 6'6″ – Projected Lottery Pick
Stephon Castle is an 11-time Big East Freshman of the Week, which broke Carmelo Anthony's record of ten set during the 2002-03 season. Now by no means is this a guarantee of Castle's eventual success in the NBA, but it's not nothing that the list of most frequent winners of Big East Freshman of the Week starts with Stephon Castle, and the next two names after his are Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson.
Castle's jumper is still iffy and his offensive output hasn't been as consistent as one would hope — Castle has been under ten points in four of UConn's seven games since the Big East Tournament began — but that can easily be explained away. Steph's iffy jumper will likely improve with time. We've seen guys come into the league lacking a sweet stroke who have found it with just a couple of years of NBA experience under their belt, and in fairness, this is really the only area of Stephon Castle's offensive repertoire that is under-developed at this point in time. He plays under control and is an absolute handful to deal with when he's attacking the basket. Castle also benefits from playing for a UConn squad that doesn't need him to carry the offensive burden. The Huskies offense is an equal opportunity affair, and if anything, it's been impressive that Castle hasn't pressed and tried to assert himself too much.
Where the Huskies star freshman really shines is on the defensive end of the floor. Castle is big, strong, and competitive, and has proven that he's capable and willing to take on any sort of big time defensive assignment. Just consider that this year, Castle has been up for the challenge of being the primary defender assigned to Baylor Scheierman, Boo Buie and Terrence Shannon, all of whom were at least selected as an All-American Honorable Mention. In those three games, Scheierman, Buie and Shannon were a combined 8-for-38 shooting.
Now having Donovan Clingan behind him and a lineup full of capable defenders around him certainly helps Castle's cause, but there's no way around it… Stephon Castle's defensive chops and his offensive upside make him a potential top five pick in the 2024 NBA Draft.
Donovan Clingan – UConn Huskies, Sophomore, 7'2″ – Projected Lottery Pick
Donovan Clingan has undoubtedly been the biggest draft riser of the month of March, thanks to a trio of eye-popping performances starting with a 22 point, 16 rebound showing in the Big East Championship Game. Since then, “Cling Kong” has dominated in wins over Northwestern in the Round of 32 (14 points, 14 rebounds, 8 blocks) and Illinois in the Elite Eight (22 points, 10 rebounds, 5 blocks, 3 steals). Clingan will likely walk into the NBA as an impactful defensive player. If you don't believe that's the case, go back and watch UConn's demolition of the Illini, a game in which the the Big Ten Tournament champions were 0-for-19 challenging Clingan at the basket.
What I'm left wondering is, what would happen to Clingan's draft stock if he UConn and Purdue were to play in the title game, and Clingan was the one player who proved to have the answer for Zach Edey? So far, Edey has dominated each and every team that has had the difficult task of finding a way to stop the soon-to-be two-time Naismith Player of the Year. It doesn't matter where they double him from or how hard they work to front him and keep him from getting the ball, Edey still finds a way to dominate. But what if Clingan is the antidote?
In theory, he's the best possible answer for someone like Edey. Clingan is nearly the same size as Edey, super long, very smart, and he's done a reasonably good job of staying out of foul trouble all year long. Additionally, there isn't a big man in the country who runs the floor like Donovan Clingan does. What kind of pressure would that put on Purdue's big man to have to keep up the pace with Clingan?
One last note: As a UConn fan, one thing I wasn't expecting this year was that Donovan Clingan would be the Huskies best player as the team made their second consecutive Final Four run. I loved the minutes he gave the Huskies off the bench last year playing behind Adama Sanogo, but would've never in a thousand years expected him to be making the sort of impact he has on a night to night basis. He's improved immensely on both ends of the floor in just one year's time, so who the hell knows what kind of ceiling he may have. What happens if Clingan, like Brook Lopez, eventually turns himself into a knockdown three-point shooter? Before you scoff, remember that Lopez was just 3-for-21 from three-point range in his two seasons at Stanford, and made only three triples during his first eight seasons in the NBA, before exploding for 134 three's in his ninth season. What happens if by year three, Clingan can get to that point?
Zach Edey – Purdue Boilermakers, Senior, 7'4″ – Projected Mid-to-Late 1st Round Pick
Edey remains one of the most confounding draft prospects in recent memory — someone whose collegiate legacy is beyond reproach, particularly after a masterful performance in the Elite Eight versus Tennessee, yet virtually no one believes that it will translate to similar success in the NBA. Even though they are completely different players, it reminds me a little bit of Tyler Hansbrough in 2009. Hansbrough came off of a National Championship winning senior season with North Carolina and was picked 13th in the NBA Draft even though it didn't necessarily feel like he should've been a lottery pick. Yes, Hansbrough was one of the most accomplished collegiate stars ever. He finished his career at North Carolina with a conference record 2,872 points and a school record 1,219 rebounds to go with the NCAA record of 982 made free throws. But nobody expected that to translate into an All-Star caliber career in the NBA.
Edey's all-time Big Ten ranks are nearly as impressive. He's 3rd in points, 3rd in rebounds (7 rebounds shy of climbing to #2), 11th in blocks, and 3rd in free throws made. He'll likely join Ralph Sampson and Bill Walton as the only two players in NCAA history to win the Naismith Player of the Year Award more than once. But again, figuring out what kind of NBA career he'll have is a difficult assignment.
Edey's ability to score near the basket should translate just fine once he's playing in the NBA. Yes, he'll be dealing with bigger defenders than he was used to in Big Ten play, but few of those bigger defenders will be bigger or stronger than Edey himself. Edey works hard at getting position, and he's calm and composed once the ball is in his hands. This year particularly, he's shown a significant improvement in his ability to handle double teams. He's not Nikola Jokic passing out of doubles, but Edey's ability to scan the floor when two defenders are hounding him is a big reason why Purdue has advanced to the Final Four.
Where Edey will struggle most at the next level is as a defender. Smart NBA teams will target Edey and put him in positions where he's required to defend in space. Put him in too many situations like that and he might get played right off the floor. But given his size and college pedigree, there's going to be a team, potentially even in the lottery, who looks at Zach Edey and says, “We know what we're getting. We know what we're not getting. And we're okay with all of it.”
Mark Sears – Alabama Crimson Tide, Senior, 6'1″ – Projected Early-to-Mid 2nd Round Pick
Let's start here, because this is the player comparison I can't get out of my head:
Mark Sears (Junior Season) – 21.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.7 steals, 50-43-86 shooting splits
Jalen Brunson (Junior season) – 18.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 0.9 steal, 52-41-80 shooting splits
Now Sears is roughly an inch or two shorter and ten to fifteen pounds lighter than Brunson was while playing at Villanova, but given the many similarities of the two lefty point guard's games, plus Brunson's stunning development in the NBA, that will likely be enough to convince at least one front office to take a shot on Sears in the 2nd round, if not even a smidge earlier. Sears may not be as crafty around the basket as Brunson is, and to be clear, that was a skill Brunson possessed as the Wildcats were steamrolling everybody in their path on their way to a second National Title in three seasons in 2018. But there's enough to Sears' game that you could at least envision him being a reliable offensive contributor at the next level. For example:
Brunson, who has become remarkably adept at drawing fouls in the NBA, took only 4.1 free throw attempts during his junior season at Villanova. Compare that to 6.3 attempts per game for Sears, who was 1st in the SEC in both free throw attempts and free throws made this year. Even if Sears lacks the footwork and the guile that Brunson has, he's at least proven that despite being undersized, he's going to find a way to get to the line for easy points. Sears also rebounds tremendously well for a player of his size, and 1.7 steals per game shows that he's opportunistic on the defensive end of the floor.
Sears still has a year of eligibility left, so it's not a certainty he'll be entering the NBA Draft. The Alabama native could opt to return to the Crimson Tide for one more season. But given how Sears has been the catalyst of Alabama's first ever Final Four run, it feels like he'll probably take his Brunson-like talents to the NBA in June. And if he can lead the Tide to an upset win over the Huskies, it's possible he could see his draft stock skyrocket.
Alex Karaban – UConn Huskies, Sophomore, 6'8″ – Projected Early-to-Mid 2nd Round Pick
A run of UConn Huskies starts with Alex Karaban, a player that Connecticut head coach Dan Hurley described as someone who “looks like the boy next door, but the guy is an incredible competitor and warrior,” according to David Borges of CT Insider. This description is pretty spot on. Karaban is tough as hell and super competitive, nice attributes for someone who projects as a slightly undersized power forward at the next level. Karaban lacks elite athleticism, strength and size, but he makes up for it in other ways. He's rarely caught out of position defensively and is unafraid of contact underneath the basket. While he's never had a double-digit rebounding game in a Huskies uniform, Karaban's two nine-board performances came against top competition — versus North Carolina earlier this season, and against Miami in the Final Four last year.
Where Karaban shines is as a multi-faceted offensive weapon. Not only is he a light's out shooter — 39 percent from three-point range in his two seasons in Storrs and he's hit plenty from well beyond the three-point line — but Karaban has also mixed in some off-the-dribble attacks against over-eager defenders who closed out just a little too hard. Karaban will never be the catalyst of an elite NBA offense, but it's very easy to imagine him as a fourth or fifth option of an offense that causes opposing defenses fits. Karaban can be used as a screen, or cutter, or just as a spot up shooter. He's proven to be particularly lethal on transition three's. That alone is enough to see him as a possible early 2nd round pick.
Tristen Newton – UConn Huskies, Senior, 6'5″ – Projected Mid-to-Late 2nd Round Pick
Tristen Newton has come a long way since being considered the weak link of UConn's starting line-up for the majority of last season. Fast forward to March 2024, and Newton has become one of just 17 players in NCAA history who has posted at least four career triple doubles, per Kels Dayton of the Hartford Courant.
Elite company, @D1Tristen 😤 pic.twitter.com/N6nglhteuR
— UConn Men's Basketball (@UConnMBB) February 27, 2024
Newton has a tremendous feel for the game. Evidence of that comes in the form over being a rare example of a player in the college game to average at least 6 rebounds and 6 assists per game (on top of 15 points each night). Newton can set his teammates up in the half court, but he might be even better in transition. Against Illinois, in the midst of UConn's 30-0 run, watch how many times Newton connected with a teammate on a long hit ahead pass in transition that led to either a lay-up or a dunk. If you run or cut or find just a sliver of space, Tristen Newton is going to set you up for a good look.
At 6'5″, Newton has the size and the skillset to be a reliable combo guard off the bench. He's got a high basketball IQ and although his jumper is still a little unreliable, we've seen him heat up from deep from time to time. The fact that Newton is a career 83 percent shooter from the free throw line provides hope that in time he could develop into a more consistent three-point shooter. But even if that consistency never comes, his ability to impact the game in a multitude of ways makes him an intriguing 2nd round option.
Cam Spencer – UConn Huskies, Senior, 6'4″ – Projected Mid-to-Late 2nd Round Pick
Just a season ago, Cam Spencer wasn't on anyone's draft radar. The 6'4″ senior had just completed his senior season at Rutgers, after spending the first three years of his collegiate career at Loyola. But using his final year of eligibility, Spencer joined the UConn Huskies and now finds himself as a projected day two pick in the NBA Draft.
Cam Spencer can shoot the hell out of the ball. He's a 42 percent career shooter from three-point range, and was a scalding hot 44 percent from deep this year. Just as a scorer in general, Spencer brings a lot of craft to the table. He's equally adept as scoring off of screens as he is as a pull-up shooter, and he's got some nifty patience when attacking the basket. As a prospect, the player he reminds me the most of is Grayson Allen. Allen had the look of a player who teams would use as a floor spacer, and while that's admittedly his primary strength as a prospect, Spencer, like Allen, is fiery as hell, not going to shy away from contact, and is totally unafraid of mixing it up for loose balls. What he lacks in size and athleticism, Spencer makes up for in giving a damn. What I'm saying is, he didn't pull down 12 rebounds in the Elite Eight against Illinois because of his athletic makeup.
Spencer has shown glimpses of being a reliable secondary playmaker as well. He's got a favorable assist-to-turnover ratio, and dished out nine assists in the Big East semifinals against St. John's, eight against Xavier, and a pair of six assist games in high profile matchups versus North Carolina and Marquette.
Rylan Griffen – Alabama Crimson Tide, Sophomore, 6'6″ – Projected Late 2nd Round Pick
Consider Rylan Griffen an under the radar prospect who could easily solidify himself as a day two prospect with a strong showing in the Final Four. Griffen brings great size to the table, as well as a diverse offensive skillset. In just one season, Griffen has grown tremendously, improving from a 30 percent three-point shooter as a freshman to a 39 percent marksman this year. But that's not even where the clearest sign of growth has come. Griffen has shown the ability to score consistently while attacking the basket. According to Rylan Stiles of Sports Illustrated, Griffen currently “converts at the rim at a 64 percent clip.” Playing in an up-tempo system like Alabama's, Griffen's shown a knack to get out in front of defenders and get easy transition baskets.
Grant Nelson – Alabama Crimson Tide, Senior, 6'11” – Projected Late 2nd Round Pick
Grant Nelson couldn't have picked a better time to have the best game of his college career. Against North Carolina in the Sweet Sixteen, the long, lanky senior with a sweet shooting stroke may have been the best player on the floor. Nelson finished with game-highs in points (24), rebounds (12) and blocks (5), leading Nate Oats' squad to the Elite Eight. Nelson may have been more prolific statistically during his three year run with North Dakota State, but playing under the bright SEC spotlight each and every night has been what has put Nelson on team's draft boards.
Nelson's build will have decision makers at the next level wondering how impactful he could be, particularly as a defender. But Nelson has the size and smarts to be an above-average shot-blocker both as a primary and help defender. Even though it's unlikely we'll ever see an NBA offense priortizing Grant Nelson post touches, he's got a soft enough touch and a developed arsenal of moves that he could get buckets around the basket. Where Nelson will thrive is as a pick and roll partner with a dominant lead guard — as he's had with Mark Sears. Nelson can be used as a roll-man, a popper, or even as a ball-handler in inverted pick and roll sets.
DJ Burns Jr. – NC State Wolfpack, Senior, 6'9″ – Projected Undrafted Free Agent
It may seem crazy to say this, but at this point in time, it feels as though it's equally likely that NC State Wolfpack center DJ Burns Jr. will be selected in the NFL Draft — despite never playing a single down of college football — as it is that he'll be selected in the NBA Draft. Obviously, he has the physical profile to be a dominant offensive tackle, but Burns has stated that he'll continue to prioritize playing professional basketball, even if it's not in the NBA.
The DJ Burns Jr. story is what March Madness is all about, but before we get too caught up in the idea of Burns coming to the NBA and taking the league by storm like some sort of Gen Z-Bo, it should be noted that Burns isn't even projected to be picked in the NBA Draft. Yes, at minimum Burns will get a Summer League invite and he'll likely be able to find a role in the G-League, but there are enough warts to his game that it seems unlikely he'll ever be a star in the NBA like he's become at NC State.
Despite being 6'9″ and tipping the scales at at least 275 lbs., Burns averages just four rebounds per game and has only six games with double-digit rebounds in his career. NC State runs their offense through Burns in the post, which maximizes both his time on the floor (Burns has only played 30+ minutes in just 16 of his 164 career games) and his skillset — Burns has a nice mid-range touch and is a gifted passer with a great feel for the game, but he's only knocked down one three-pointer in his career. To have sustained success at the next level, Burns will need to eventually extend his range.
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