Ranked fifth twelfth in the nation, Rick Barnes’ Tennessee Volunteers take on Kevin Keatts’ NC State Wolfpack. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Tennessee-NC State prediction and pick.
Both Kevin Keatts and Rick Barnes are riding three-game winning streaks coming into this matchup. Keatts and the Wolfpack dropped their two toughest games so far to BYU and Ole Miss. Despite a 7-2 record, only one of those wins was against a top-100 opponent (91st Boston College in overtime).
Revamped, the Wolfpack are led by guard transfers Jayden Taylor (Butler) and DJ Horne (Arizona State). Combine the returning senior duo of 6-9 DJ Burns and 6-3 Casey Morsell with the new additions and Keatts has something brewing in Raleigh.
Rick Barnes also hit the transfer portal this off-season. Barnes cashed in a big way by bringing over Northern Colorado’s Dalton Knecht, who may very well be a first or second-team All-American. In addition, USC Upstate’s Jordan Gainey has provided an outside presence. The Vols brought back one of the best-returning cores in the nation. Santiago Vescovi, Zakai Zeigler, Josiah-Jordan James, and Jonas Aidoo all combine with the new transfers to form an elite defensive team.
Before we dive in, it is important to note this game is being played on a neutral floor in San Antonio. Obviously, being closer to Tennessee there may be slightly more Vols fans, but I do not predict either team to have a significant crowd advantage.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Tennessee-NC State Odds
Tennessee: -9.5 (-110)
NC State: +9.5 (-110)
Over: 148.5 (-110)
Under: 148.5 (-110)
How to Watch Tennessee vs. NC State
Time: 10:00 pm ET/ 7:00 pm PT
TV: ESPN2
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Tennessee Will Cover The Spread
Tennessee’s biggest weakness defensively is defending without fouling. The Vols defensive intensity and physicality create a lot of fouls. Tennessee’s defensive free throw rate ranks 275th, but more importantly, NC State’s offensive free throw rate is 277th. For a Tennessee team that usually puts teams on the line, NC State is not a team that draws many fouls.
Surprisingly, NC State has decent front-court depth. Kevin Keatts will rotate three big men throughout the contest. Initially, DJ Burns will start with Ben Middlebrooks and freshman Mohamed Diarra off the bench. You may be thinking, how is this good for Tennessee?
Only reserve Mohamed Diarra has a block rate above 4%. DJ Burns is down at 3.4%, and Middlebrooks at 1.8%. Contrarily, Tennessee’s front court foursome of Jonas Aidoo, Tobe Awaka, JP Estrella, and Cade Phillips all boast block rates above 4%. In summary, the bigs for Tennessee should win the rim protection battle by a healthy margin.
Lastly, Tennessee has Dalton Knecht. The 6-6 Northern Colorado transfer has been virtually unguardable through ten games. Statistically, Knecht is Tennessee’s best offensive scorer since Grant Williams. Just speaking from a matchup standpoint, Knecht should be able to get to his spots with ease all night long.
NC State does not play a guard taller than 6-4 except for emerging freshman, 6-6 Dennis Parker. No matter who Kevin Keatts throws at Knecht, he is going to have a height mismatch. When Knecht is on the floor Rick Barnes plays through him on over 25% of possessions, the highest on the team.
Why NC State Will Cover The Spread
Initially, Arizona State transfer DJ Horne jumps off the page at me. If you are not familiar with Tennessee’s defense, it is as elite as it gets. The Vols ranked overall number one in defensive efficiency last year and are currently ranked 3rd after ten games. Having experienced guard play is almost required when facing a Rick Barnes defense.
Thankfully, DJ Horne is boasting a turnover rate of only 3.2%. Yes, you read that right — just 3.2%. This ranks sixth in the nation amongst all players. If the Wolfpack has anyone who can match up against Zakai Zeigler from a ball-handling standpoint, it is DJ Horne.
Lastly, it is not significant, but worth noting — let us talk offensive tempo quickly. One of the best ways to cover a multi-possession spread is to slow the game down. In terms of offensive tempo, a slower pace is going to favor the Wolfpack in this matchup. While Tennessee’s offense ranks 28th fastest at 15.5 seconds per possession — NC State is 66th at 16.2 seconds per possession. If Keatts decides to lean into a slower pace, it could significantly impact their chances of covering the steep spread.
Final Tennessee-NC State Prediction & Pick
On a neutral floor, I will almost always lean towards the more talented team. In any game with Tennessee playing, the opponent's free throw rate is vital to my handicap. The fact that NC State does not get to the line often will not do well for them. With the breakout of Dalton Knecht and the rim protection advantage, I will take Rick Barnes's squad to cover the large spread. Give me Tennessee.
Final Tennessee-NC State Prediction & Pick: Tennessee -9.5 (-110)
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