The offseason has officially begun for 28 NFL teams, and the other four aren't far off. By extension, that means it's NFL Draft season for most of the league, and teams are surely making their projections already. While fans can't see exactly what teams are thinking, draft analysts like Mel Kiper Jr. give us a pretty good picture with his mock draft.
Kiper has been one of, if not the top draft analyst for decades at this point. His accuracy over such a long period, while not perfect, has given him great credibility among fans and fellow analysts. In fact, Kiper just released his first 2023 mock draft on Wednesday, and NFL fans are buzzing.
The Houston Texans have to be one of the teams most looking forward to the draft. Houston held the first overall pick for most of the season, but a Week 18 win over the Indianapolis Colts knocked the Texans down to the second pick. While losing the top pick stings, the Texans are still in position to address their biggest needs. The fact that they also hold the 12th overall pick, which they acquired from the Cleveland Browns in the Deshaun Watson trade, also helps ease the blow a bit.
But what are those needs, and who should Houston take to fill them? Without further ado, let's get into who Kiper projects the Texans taking with their two first-round picks.
Houston Texans Pick 2: C.J. Stroud, quarterback, Ohio State
With the second overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Kiper has Houston taking Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Buckeyes superstar is a contender to go first overall, and has the second-best odds to do so, per FanDuel. However, with the Chicago Bears holding the top pick and not needing a QB, Stroud and other QBs should be available at second overall. Quarterback is the Texans' biggest need this offseason, and they will almost certainly fill that need here.
“Houston just fired coach Lovie Smith, and the franchise's clear offseason priority has to be upgrading at the quarterback position,” Kiper wrote. “Davis Mills really struggled in his second season as the Texans' offense was among the league's worst in several statistical categories.”
So, why Stroud over Alabama's Bryce Young and Kentucky's Will Levis, the other top QBs in the draft? After all, Kiper even has Stroud slightly below those two quarterbacks on his big board. Well, Kiper believes that Stroud is the best fit in Houston's scheme of the three.
In particular, Kiper praised Stroud's arm strength and accuracy over the other two. He also praised Stroud's performance in his final game, a close loss to Georgia in the College Football Playoff.
“I usually don't put much stock into a single game evaluation, but Stroud's performance in the narrow loss to Georgia in the College Football Playoff semifinals showed me something,” Kiper wrote. “He was spectacular against an elite defense, carving up the Bulldogs with his arm and using his legs to maneuver the pocket and find receivers.”
The Texans desperately need a new quarterback next season, and if Kiper is right, they get one here.
Houston Texans Pick 12: Lukas Van Ness, DL, Iowa
With the 12 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Kiper has Houston taking Iowas defensive lineman Lukas Van Ness. After addressing their biggest offensive need with their first pick, the Texans pick up some help on the other side here.
“I gave the Texans their quarterback of the future with the No. 2 pick, and general manager Nick Caserio should go with the best prospect on his board with this selection, which was acquired in the Deshaun Watson trade,” Kiper wrote. “Don't get picky and try to plug a hole — this roster has to improve in several spots.”
While Kiper has the Texans going for a “best available” approach, the defensive line is a particular area of need. Houston allowed the third-most yards and sixth-most points this season, and the defense as a whole lacks talent. With that in mind, getting a versatile lineman like Van Ness is a great idea.
Van Ness was a force along the Hawkeyes' defensive line, both inside and outside. He racked up 13.5 sacks in just two collegiate seasons, mostly from the interior.
“Van Ness is a versatile and productive defender who made an impact at end and tackle for the Hawkeyes, even as he never actually started a game,” Kiper wrote. “He had 13.5 sacks over the past two seasons, 9.5 from the interior and four from the edge. NFL teams covet that sort of positional flexibility. He would get lots of early snaps for Houston.”
Regardless of what they choose to do, the Texans need an infusion of talent this offseason. If Kiper's projections hold true, then Houston would get a cornerstone player on both sides of the ball.
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