The Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals face off in Week 11 in a matchup of two exciting young quarterbacks in rookie MVP candidate CJ Stroud and the recently returned Kyler Murray. Ahead of this Texans-Cardinals, Stroud-Murray matchup, let's make some bold Texans Week 11 predictions.
The Texans have a ton of momentum on their side heading into Week 11. They've won two in a row and both of those came on game-winning with less than six seconds to go. Not just that, but the Texans have won three of their last four and five of their last seven games. Stroud is not just playing like an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate but like an MVP candidate. Houston is also firmly alive in the playoff conversation. They trail the Jacksonville Jaguars by a game in the AFC South division but they own the tiebreaker at the moment and currently hold the last AFC Wild Card spot. Everything they want is in front of them.
Up next on the Texans schedule are the Cardinals. The Cardinals may be 2-8, but they are a scrappy team and just knocked off the Atlanta Falcons a week ago thanks to a buzzer-beating field goal by kicker Matt Prater. It was also the first game Murray returned as a starter and he looked very much like himself. The Cardinals will not be a pushover. This looks like what will be a good game. That's a prediction. How about a couple of more bold Texans Week 11 predictions?
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CJ Stroud throws for at least 400 yards
As mentioned above, CJ Stroud is not just the overwhelming favorite for Rookie of the Year, but he's already a legitimate MVP candidate.
Stroud has the sixth-best MVP odds on FanDuel Sportsbook entering this week behind Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa, and Joe Burrow (who is now out for the season). It isn't hard to see why.
In the last two weeks, Stroud has thrown for 826 yards and six touchdowns with only one interception while adding another touchdown on the ground. Stroud's EPA plus CPOE (completion percentage over expectation) composite score ranks 12th in the NFL, which is an outstanding rank as a rookie.
He draws a great matchup this week too. The Cardinals rank 29th in the NFL in EPA per dropback allowed this season behind only the Washington Commanders, Chicago Bears, and Denver Broncos. Teams haven't had many issues throwing on the Cardinals when they've needed to. The same should apply to Stroud and the Texans this week.
Both teams score at least 30 points
The Vegas over/under for this game currently sits at 47.5. Vegas also has Houston as six-point favorites, so they expect both teams to score at least 20 points. But they could do more than that with the defense they're going up against. Houston's defense ranks 21st in EPA per play allowed defensively. Arizona ranks 30th. The Texans also rank eighth in the NFL in pace and tenth in EPA per play on offense. They run a lot of plays and run them efficiently.
The Cardinals don't quite follow that philosophy. They rank 24th in the NFL in pace and are 28th in the NFL in EPA per play on offense. But, most of that was without Kyler Murray. Also, the Texans have allowed at least 27 points in each of their last two games which has also coincided with CJ Stroud going nuclear.
The Texans should not have a problem scoring points. That means that the Cardinals are going to have to keep up and score some points of their own. With Murray back, they could very well do that. Don't be surprised if this game turns into a shootout.
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