It is an SEC West battle as Texas A&M and Arkansas face off. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a Texas A&M-Arkansas prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Texas A&M is now 3-1 on the season with a 1-0 record in the SEC. They opened up the season with a dominating performance over New Mexico. The next week, it was a loss though. The Aggies were dominated by Miami and fell 48-33. They would rebound though. First, it was a 47-3 victory over UL Monroe, followed by a win over Auburn. In the game Texas A&M held just a three-point lead at half, and their starting quarterback Conner Wiegman went out. Max Johnson stepped in and led Texas A&M on two touchdown drives, which would end up with Texas A&M winning 27-10.
Arkansas enters the game at 2-2 on the season and 0-1 in SEC play. They started the season with two convincing wins but against lesser opponents. First, it was a victory over Western Carolina, and then a victory over Kent State. The First test came in their third game of the year as they faced BYU. Arkansas took a 14-0 lead in the game, and then later had a 31-24 lead in the third quarter. BYU kept rallying though and would win 38-31. The next week was against LSU. Arkansas had a ten-point lead in the second quarter, but in the second half kept falling behind. The game would end on a walk-off field goal with five seconds left on the clock as LSU would beat Arkansas.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Texas A&M-Arkansas Odds
Texas A&M: -5.5 (-115)
Arkansas: +5.5 (-105)
Over: 53.5 (-110)
Under: 53.5 (-110)
How to Watch Texas A&M vs. Arkansas
TV: SEC Network
Stream: ESPN App
Time: 12:00 PM ET/ 9:00 AM PT
*Watch college football LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Texas A&M Will Cover The Spread
Max Johnson will be the new starting quarterback for Texas A&M with Conner Weigman out for the season with a foot injury. He played well in the game with Auburn. Johnson went seven for 11 for 123 yards in the game with two touchdowns. He had one big-time throw according to PFF while not throwing a turnover-worthy pass. He has sacked once in the game and led Texas A&M to a victory over Auburn in the game.
To get the win, Johnson is going to need help from the wide receivers. Evan Stewart has been solid this year as a receiver. He has brought in 22 of 30 targets for 307 yards and two scores. Meanwhile, Ainias Smith has been good as well. He has brought in 18 of 28 target hits a year for 272 yards. He has been solid after the catch too, with 100 yards after the catch this year. Further, Jake Johnson is a quality security blanket for Max Johnson. He has hauled in 11 of 15 targets from his tight end position, coming away with 90 yards and a score.
The running game for Texas A&M has been good this year too. They have run 107 times for 657 times with seven scores. Amari Daniels has 244 yards on the ground with two scores. He is getting good blocking as well, averaging over three yards before first contact this year. He does have a fumble this year as well.
Texas A&M will also be looking to continue their stout defense. On the year they have been solid on the pass rush. They have 50 quarterback pressures with 15 sacks. Leading the way for them is Shemar Turner. Turner has 12 pressures and three sacks on the season. Meanwhile, Tauren York leads the team against the run. He has 12 stops for offensive failures this year, while also having an average depth of tackle of just 1.9 yards beyond the line of scrimmage. Meanwhile, Texas A&M needs to find turnovers in the passing game. They have just one interception this year, but they do have eight pass breakups.
Why Arkansas Will Cover The Spread
For Arkansas, it all starts with KJ Jefferson. He has been solid in the passing game this year. Jefferson is 76-109 passing for 918 yards and nine touchdowns. He has made ten big-time throws according to PFF, and has an adjusted completion percentage over 80 percent this year. Still, there are some concerns. First, he is being sacked a lot. Jefferson has been sacked 11 times this year while having to scramble away for positive yardage another 10 times. The second is ball security. He has thrown three interceptions, and another seven turnover-worthy passes.
Jefferson has been rushing fairly well. He has 56 yards scrambling, and 183 yards rushing overall. The biggest issue in the rushing game has also been ball security. He has fumbled six times. AJ Green has been solid in the rushing game. He has 190 yards rushing with two touchdowns this year on 31 rushes. Further, Rashod Dubinion has 171 yards and a touchdown this year rushing.
Jefferson would also like a big game from his wide receivers. Andrew Armstrong has brought in 24 of 29 receptions for 273 yards and three touchdowns. Further, Luke Haaz has brought in 15 of 16 receptions for 239 yards and three scores as well. Both guys have been highly reliable this year for Jefferson.
On defense, Arkansas has been stout against the run. they have 67 stops for offensive failures on 98 rushing attempts. Jaheim Thomas leads the way. He has 15 stops for offensive failures while making 18 total tackles and 10 assists this year. Texas A&M also has 15 sacks on 65 quarterback pressures this year. Thomas has four of those sacks with eight total pressures.
Final Texas A&M-Arkansas Prediction & Pick
Arkansas has played two close games in a row but has not put together a complete game yet. The offensive line has not helped out KJ Jefferson a lot this year, and he is trying to do a lot on his own. In the BYU game, that was the main failure that led to the loss. Then in LSU, it was a few turnovers and defensive penalties that cost them. Meanwhile, Texas A&M is on to a backup quarterback. While Max Johnson is one of the better backups in college football, he is still the backup nonetheless. This should be a tight game, but with the spread under a touchdown, take Texas A&M
Final Texas A&M-Arkansas Prediction & Pick: Texas A&M -5.5 (-115)