Florida and Texas A&M are set for an SEC showdown when they clash in Week 3 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville. It is time to continue our college football odds series with a Texas A&M-Florida prediction and pick.
The Gators bounced back from their disappointing 41-17 loss to Miami in Week 1 with a dominant 45-7 win over Samford, and it was the play of star freshman D.J. Lagway that gives fans confidence moving forward. The No. 3 overall player in the 2024 class threw for a Florida freshman-record 456 yards and three touchdowns in relief of the injured Graham Mertz.
Meanwhile, the Aggies also got back on track with a 52-10 victory against McNeese. Mike Elko's team probably wants a redo of their loss to Notre Dame after the Fighting Irish were upset by Northern Illinois, but there's still enough talent on the roster to compete with the SEC's best teams this season.
Here are the College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Texas A&M-Florida Odds
Texas A&M: -3.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -172
Florida: +3.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +142
Over: 48.5 (-105)
Under: 48.5 (-115)
How to Watch Texas A&M vs. Florida
Time: 3:30 PM ET/ 12:30 PM PT
TV: ABC
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why Texas A&M Could Cover The Spread/Win
We've been here before with Florida.
There was a lot of hype entering the Miami game, and we saw how that turned out for the Gators. They were embarrassed in their own stadium, which sent Billy Napier's seat from hot to nuclear. The Aggies have an opportunity to send that level of heat into another stratosphere.
To do so, Mike Elko's defense needs to control the game. Lagway's spectacular performance in Week 2 should be top of mind, and the Aggies can do what they do best to defend either him or Mertz in the passing game. Texas A&M ranks top 25 nationally in passing yards allowed (128.5), yards per completion (8.9), and yards per attempt (5.0) through two games, and though that's skewed by a dominant Week 2 victory, we already knew this was a stellar defense.
If the Aggies can get in the backfield and force more sacks (they only have one thus far this season), they can give their offense a little momentum via turnovers or a short field. That would be nice since the Texas A&M offense was underwhelming in the loss to Notre Dame.
Luckily, Florida's defense probably isn't to the level of Notre Dame's defense. It's unlikely that quarterback Connor Weigman completes just 12 of 30 throws for 100 yards and two interceptions as he did against the Fighting Irish. He's better than that, and he'll be out to prove it in this game.
Why Florida Could Cover The Spread/Win
The Gators have the luxury of playing two quality quarterbacks.
Napier has made it clear that he's open to the idea of giving both Mertz and Lagway snaps under center, and that presents an interesting challenge for the Texas A&M defense. Which quarterback do they need to prepare for? What different formations could Florida use? And how do you defend the playmakers like Montrell Johnson Jr. (26 CARs, 173 YDs, 3 TDs), Elijah Wilson III (13 RECs, 191 YDs, 1 TD), and Elijhah Badger (6 RECs, 166 YDs) around them? Questions like that are great for trying to earn a tactical advantage.
Sure, Mertz's numbers weren't exactly spectacular against the Hurricanes (11-of-20 for 91 yards and an interception), but we can't forget that he was as efficient as it gets a season ago in completing 72.9 percent of his throws for 20 touchdowns and only three picks.
Speaking of quarterbacks, while Weigman won't struggle like he did against Notre Dame, there's reason to think this Texas A&M offense may have been overrated. Until they can put together a complete game against a quality opponent – yes, you can say the same about the Gators – it's understandable why some may hesitate on the Aggies being favored by more than a field goal.
Another reason to back Florida? These two teams have met four times, with three of those games (2012, 2017, and 2020) decided by three points or fewer.
Final Texas A&M-Florida Prediction & Pick
Good luck trying to figure out what you're going to get from either team in this matchup.
Their Week 2 performances are reason for optimism, but there are still trust issues with both. Texas A&M is probably the more talented team of the two, and the pressure on Napier is at an all-time high.
The best bet is probably to stay far away from this game unless it drops to the key number of four or lower.
However, since a pick is necessary, let's give the Gators one last shot before writing them off for the season.
Final Texas A&M-Florida Prediction & Pick: Florida +3.5 (-115)
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