Texas football is favored to win all of its games except for Week 2 on the road at Alabama, according to ESPN's football power index (FPI). Alabama is easily the toughest matchup on the Longhorns' schedule, as the Big 12 has no clearly elite teams.

ESPN describes FPI as follows: “The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.”

In a simulation of all of Texas football's 2023 games, the model gave Texas a 26.7% chance of beating Alabama. Alabama beat Texas in a 20-19 thriller last year in Austin. The Crimson Tide capped it off with a late field goal to win it.

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Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers made some phenomenal throws in the first half, but left early with an injury. There's no telling what would have happened if he remained in the game.

The Longhorns should certainly compete with Alabama this year. They have a stacked roster and an elite quarterback talent in Ewers. Alabama, of course, will be extremely hard to beat, but their quarterback picture is still uncertain. Texas should have good chances to pull off the upset in this game, but it's hard to walk out of Tuscaloosa with a win. The Crimson Tide is favored by seven points in this year's contest.

The next hardest game on the Longhorns' schedule is the rivalry game against Oklahoma. The FPI gives Texas a 62.8% chance of beating the Sooners.