The Texas Tech Red Raiders take on the Baylor Bears. Check out our college football odds series for our Texas Tech Baylor prediction and pick. Find how to watch Texas Tech Baylor.

This is a survival game in the Big 12 Conference in Week 6. Both Texas Tech and Baylor are 2-3 through five games. The loser here falls to 2-4. You can do the basic math and conclude that the loser of this game will be in big trouble in terms of missing a bowl game. Neither Texas Tech nor Baylor expected to miss a bowl game this season, and you probably wouldn't have found a lot of people who would have projected these teams to miss a bowl game in 2023. Yet, the loser will be more likely — not less — to miss a bowl this season. It's not a game with conference championship stakes, but it's a very important game because it has definite postseason implications.

Texas Tech tripped up early in the season against Wyoming and then lost to West Virginia. Baylor stumbled against Texas State and then lost a late lead against Utah. Both teams are trying to overcome those early-season losses. Only the winner will have a realistic chance of doing so. This one matters a lot to both sides.

Here are the Texas Tech-Baylor College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.

College Football Odds: Texas Tech-Baylor Odds

Texas Tech Red Raiders: -1.5 (-105)

Baylor Bears: +1.5 (-115)

Over: 59.5 (-110)

Under: 59.5 (-110)

How To Watch Texas Tech vs Baylor

Time: 8:00 pm ET / 5:00 pm PT


Stream: fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Texas Tech Could Cover the Spread

Texas Tech is not a particularly good team, but Baylor is worse. Both teams are 2-3 through five games, but if you look underneath the surface, Texas Tech's body of work is more impressive. Both teams almost beat Pac-12 championship contenders, but Texas Tech's loss to Oregon looks better right now than Baylor's loss to Utah, given that Utah's offense has scored 14 points in its last two games and has frankly struggled the whole season. Oregon looks very strong, making Texas Tech's good performance against the Ducks look even better several weeks later. Tech certainly played its Pac-12 opponent better than Baylor did, even though both teams almost won those games in early September.

Texas Tech also has a close loss at Wyoming which looks better a month later. Wyoming is 4-0 at home and is a contender in the Mountain West Conference. Baylor has an ugly loss to Texas State in which it was simply not prepared to play.

Baylor also fell behind UCF last week, 35-7. The fact that Baylor rallied is impressive, but the Bears were this close to being 1-4 through five games. By comparison, Tech has had a less volatile season and is therefore more worthy of trust.

Why Baylor Could Cover the Spread

The Bears are going to gain a lot of momentum from their comeback last week on the road at UCF. The Bears were down 35-7 in the third quarter and trailed 35-10 entering the fourth quarter before winning the fourth quarter by a 26-0 score. This team has struggled profoundly, but a comeback like that can really turn things around. It can change the mood in the locker room and alter the view the team has of itself. That will be the engine for a strong performance in this game against Texas Tech.

Final Texas Tech-Baylor Prediction & Pick

These teams are mediocre and untrustworthy, exactly the kinds of teams you shouldn't bet on. Stay away.

Final Texas Tech-Baylor Prediction & Pick: Baylor +1.5