After going 5-10 in December, the Minnesota Timberwolves have emerged as one of the better teams in January. In fact, the Wolves have won nine of their 13 games as of this writing. They have also entered the top eight of the Western Conference. Is there something that needs to be fixed here, or are they finally on the up and up? Here we will look at the dream scenario that the Timberwolves are hoping for as we close in on the 2023 NBA trade deadline.
D'Angelo Russell is crucial to any moves the Timberwolves may make at the deadline. It has always been him. His status not only affects the Timberwolves' fortunes this season but also the upcoming offseason.
Russell's contract is expiring, and while he averages 17.1 points and 6.2 assists, his defense remains a concern. Minnesota may choose to let Russell go as their window to improve their roster is closing. Doing so also means they could have $20 million in cap space this offseason if they also waive Taurean Prince and Jordan McLaughlin.
Another wrinkle is Anthony Edwards. He expects to receive a contract extension starting in 2024-25, at which point the Timberwolves would have $130 million invested in three players (Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Rudy Gobert). Rather than waiting until the offseason, Minnesota could use Russell's current salary to trade for a starting point guard who is under contract through 2023-24. For instance, the Heat may be willing to trade Kyle Lowry if it means shedding his $29.7 million contract for next season. Another option is Mike Conley, but the Jazz have the Timberwolves' first-round pick in 2023. As such, there is little incentive for them to help Minnesota improve.
If the Wolves made such a move at the deadline, they could keep Prince and McLaughlin, sign a player to the $11.4 million mid-level exception, and remain below the luxury tax this summer. Alternatively, the Wolves could wait until the offseason and explore sign-and-trade options with Russell.
Now let's look at the Timberwolves' dream scenario for the 2023 NBA trade deadline.
Timberwolves deal Russell for a proven, experienced playmaker
There is no question about Russell's significance to the Wolves' overall future. Still, it's fascinating to note that as we near the deadline, rumors about the 26-year-old Timberwolves guard have somewhat died down.
Even ESPN's Zach Lowe expressed that very sentiment.
“You know, the Wolves have a point guard situation that I think has kinda quieted down with D’Angelo Russell,” said Lowe on his latest podcast. “D’Angelo Russell’s kinda had a good year for them, shooting the ball really well. I have not heard a lot of D-Lo stuff anymore.”
Again, previous reports indicate that Miami has shown interest in a trade involving Lowry and Russell. Of course, the possible Conlety-to-Minnesota deal is also still up in the air.
That said, despite a stagnant trade market for Russell in the last six months, Russell's recent performance has increased his trade value. Keep in mind that since December 1st, he has been part of the 50-40-90 club. Russell's production has seen an improvement in recent months, with an increase in scoring and efficiency in his shooting. In October-November, he averaged 14.4 points and shot 31.8 percent from three and 42.5 percent overall. However, in December-January, he averaged 20.4 points while shooting 43.4 percent from three and 49.8 percent overall.
D’Angelo Russell clutch jumper over Jose Alvarado pic.twitter.com/aWalud7RK2
— Timberwolves Clips (@WolvesClips) January 26, 2023
It is unclear if this elevated production and improved shooting are related to Karl-Anthony Towns' absence from the court. If Towns returns this season, it remains to be seen whether Russell can maintain this level of performance or if he will revert back to his October-November form. Minnesota will have to consider this when making a decision on Russell's future with the team.
As such, he could bring value to teams that need scoring for a playoff run. Strangely enough, his strong play has increased his trade value compared to earlier in the season.
The bottom line is that the Timberwolves have several options regarding Russell's future with the team. They can choose to let his contract expire and let him walk this summer, try to work out a sign-and-trade, or trade him within the next two weeks. Re-signing Russell on a new contract would not be a wise decision as Edwards should receive a contract extension soon. Additionally, the Wolves just cannot afford Russell, Edwards, Towns, and Gobert in the seasons to come.
They need to get ahead of this now by trading D'Angelo Russell for a proven and experienced floor general. Again, either Lowry or Conley fits that bill. That would be their dream scenario moving forward.
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