The Minnesota Twins head north of the border this weekend to face the Toronto Blue Jays. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Twins-Blue Jays prediction, pick, and how to watch.
The Twins enter the game after being swept by the Tampa Bay Rays. They have now lost five straight games, but still sit in first place in the AL Central with a 31-32 record on the year. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays just won four of five over the Astros and have won nine of their last 11 games overall. They are in fourth place in their division sitting at 36-28. The inequity between the divisions shows up heavily in this game. The Twins are in first, with a record that would tie them for last in the AL East.
Here are the Twins-Blue Jays MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Twins-Blue Jays Odds
Minnesota Twins: +1.5 (-194)
Toronto Blue Jays: -1.5 (+160)
Over: 8.5 (-118)
Under: 8.5 (-104)
How To Watch Twins vs. Blue Jays
TV: BSNO/SNET
Stream: MLB.TV
Time: 7:07 PM ET/ 4:07 PMPT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
The Twins' offense has not been amazing this year. While they are 18th in runs scored this year, they are 26th in batting average and 22nd in on-base percentage. They showed their offensive ineptitude after the five-game losing streak. In this time, they have scored just six runs, and been shut out once. While the pitching has had some bright spots, they have not scored over two in a game, while not giving up less than two. The RBI leader on the team is Trevor Larnach with 27 RBIs on the season. That is tied for 87th in the league, and Larnach is hitting just .203 this year. After missing time at the end of May into June, Larnach rejoined the lineup for the Rays series. He went o-8 in the series with two walks.
No one is hitting particularly well for the Twins in the last week. The one exception may be Michael A. Taylor. Taylor is hitting .333 since the start of the month, with two home runs and two RBIs. He has also stolen four bases but struck out four times. One of those stolen bases resulted in the Twins manager, Rocco Baldelli calling out Max Kepler. Kepler failed to take second base when Taylor stole third.
The Twins start Sonny Gray in this one. He is coming off his first loss of the year. Gray gave up three runs in 6.2 innings of work, but since the Twins only scored two runs, he took the loss. He has not recorded a win since April 30th. In April, he had a .77 ERA. That went up in May to 3.55, but he only gave up over two runs once. Still, his teams lost four of the five starts as he took five no-decisions.
Why The Blue Jays Could Cover The Spread
The Blue Jays put out the better offense in this matchup. They are fourth in the majors in batting average, while sitting fourth in on-base percentage. The Blue Jays are tenth in the majors in runs scored, primarily because they have struggled to hit with runners in scoring position. This year, Toronto sits 22nd in the majors in batting average with runners in scoring position.
Bo Bichette is continuing his monster season for the Jays. He is the team leader in batting average, home runs, and RBIs. Bichette is fourth in the majors with a .326 average, while he is top 15 in home runs and RBIs with 14 and 42 respectively. He has cooled off just slightly since the calendar moved to June. He is hitting just .273 this month with ten strikeouts. Still, he has launched three home runs and driven in four. Dalton Varsho is also picking up. He was hitting just .213 heading into the month. In June, he is hitting .292 with three home runs and four RBIs, while scoring seven times. He has hits in all but two games and a run in all but one.
The Blue Jays will start Yusei Kikuchi today. Kikuchi has a 6-2 record on the season with a 4.40 ERA. His word as of late has not been great. He has given up at least one home run in each of his last five starts, including three multi-home run games. He has not also pitched past the fifth in any of those starts. Still, Kikuchi is getting run support, which is getting him wins. If he gets that again today, he should hold the Twins' offense down enough to get the win.
Final Twins-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick
This is an interesting match-up. Sonny Gray is the better pitcher by far. Even if his record does not show it, all his advanced metrics do. Further Kikuchi has not looked great as of late and could be tagged for a few runs. The issue is will the Twins capitalize? The Twins' offense has been awful as of late and shows little signs of improving. This should end up being a tight game due to all that, so with that, take the runs in this one.
Final Twins-Blue Jays Prediction & Pick: Twins +1.5 (-194)
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