Yesterday, the Reds took a 7-3 victory over the Twins. The Reds took a 2-0 lead in the second inning on a Noelvi Marte single and Will Benson sacrifice fly. The Twins got a run back in the fourth on a Royce Lewis home run, but Benson hit a two-run shot in the bottom of the inning to extend the lead. In the seventh, the Reds broke open the game, scoring three runs to take the 7-2 lead, which would ultimately hold.
Even with the loss, the Twins are still seven games ahead of the Guardians in the AL Central. They are now just five games away from clinching the division. The Reds are trying to make a playoff push in what could be Joey Votto's last season. The Reds are currently tied with the Cubs for the final Wild Card spot, sitting a half-game behind the Diamondbacks, and a half-game up on the Marlins.
Here are the Twins-Reds MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Twins-Reds Odds
Minnesota Twins: -1.5 (+126)
Cincinnati Reds: +1.5 (-152)
Over: 9 (-120)
Under: 9 (-102)
How To Watch Twins vs. Reds
Time: 6:40 PM ET/ 3:40 PM PT
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Why The Twins Could Cover The Spread
The Twins had been getting some solid pitching in the last week but struggled yesterday. On the year, the Twins are seventh in team ERA, fourth in WHIP, and fourth in opponent batting average. They will send Kenta Maeda to the mound today. He is 5-7 on the year with a 4.50 ERA. This month he has been solid. So far in three starts he has pitched 17.1 innings and given up seven runs in that time. That is good for a 3.63 ERA. While he has pitched well, he has had some trouble with home runs. He has given up a home run in each of his last three starts. Still, he is 2-0 in the three starts as the Twins are 2-1 as a team.
At the plate the Twins are tied for 12th in runs scored this year, while sitting 22nd in batting average, 16th in on-base percentage, and tenth in slugging. Royce Lewis comes into this game hot. He is hitting just .280 but has a .419 on-base percentage. In that time, he has hit three home runs and stolen a base. That has also given him eight RBIS and five runs scored. Meanwhile, Kyle Farmer is driving in runs. He is hitting just .120 with a .185 on-base percentage but has six RBIs. He has done this with two home runs and a double while scoring four times.
Scoring runs is something Edouard Julien has been doing. He is hitting just .174 in the last week but has a .321 on-base percentage. Julien has hit three home runs and a double while driving in five runs. He has scored six runs in the last week. The hottest bat in the lineup may be Matt Wallner. He is hitting .391 in the last week with a .417 on-base percentage. Wallner has a home run and two doubles with four RBIs. He has also scored three runs in the last week.
Why The Reds Could Cover The Spread
The Reds have been solid at the plate this year. They are tenth in runs scored while sitting 17th in batting average, 12th in on-base percentage, and 17th in slugging. Christian Encarnacion-Strand has been hitting great in the last week. He is hitting .500 in the last week with a .545 on-base percentage. He has two home runs and four RBIs in the last week with three runs scored. Encarnacion-Strand has also stolen a base in the last week.
Jonathan India is also driving in runs, but not hitting as well. He is hitting just .125 in the last week with a .250 on-base percentage. India had four RBIs in the last week with the help of a home run. He has also scored two times in the last week. Scoring a lot lately has been Noelvi Marte. He has scored four times in the last week. He is hitting .500 with a .529 on-base percentage. Marte also has two RBIs in the last week. Meanwhile, Nick Senzel comes in hitting well. He is hitting .368 with a home run and a double. Still, he has just one RBI but has scored three runs.
The Reds are sending Fernando Cruz to open the game today. He has only opened one game this year, back on August 26th. In that game he went 1.1 innings, giving up an unearned run. This year, he has a 4.05 ERA and a 1-1 record. He will most likely be going out for a short outing today and the Reds will rely on the bullpen. This year, the Reds have a 3.90 ERA on the season, which is a middle-of-the-back bullpen ERA.
Final Twins-Reds Prediction & Pick
For Kenta Maeda today, this game being on the road is a good thing. He has a 3.31 ERA on the road this year while sitting with an ERA over six at home. Since the All-Star break he has also been better, sitting with a 4.14 ERA in that time frame. Cruz is coming in off of just two days of rest. So he will be going for a short outing. Still, the Reds bullpen is well-rested and should be efficient today. The Reds are hitting identical to the Twins in the last week. Both teams are hitting .230 in the last week. The Twins have scored 40 runs on an expected 30.9. The Reds have scored 31 on an expected 25.5 Both teams are scoring better than expected, and this will be a tight game. The difference today could be one swing of the bat. The Twins are hitting for power much better than the Reds as of late. Still, in general, the Reds slug better. The Reds desperately need a win, and they will come away with one today.
Final Twins-Reds Prediction & Pick: Reds +1.5 (-152)