The UConn basketball team advanced to the Final Four with a dominant 77-52 win over Illinois on Saturday, and later that night it was revealed that the Huskies will match up with Alabama in the semifinal game next Saturday after the Crimson Tide defeated Clemson in their Elite Eight game. UConn opened as an 11.5-point favorite against Alabama, which is the fourth time in the past 50 years there has been a spread that big in the Final Four, according to Ben Fawkes.

In 1974, NC State was a 13-point favorite against Marquette in the championship game. The next example is from 1996, when Kentucky was a 14-point favorite over Syracuse in the championship. The 1999 Duke team was an 11.5-point favorite against Michigan State in the semifinal game, and Gonzaga was a 14.5-point favorite against UCLA in 2021 in the semifinal.

As far as the results of those games, NC State beat Marquette 76-64, so while NC State won the national championship game, it did not cover the 13-point spread. Kentucky beat Syracuse 76-67, so the Wildcats did not cover the 14-point spread. Duke did not cover against Michigan State, but did win 68-62 to advance to the championship game, where the Blue Devils lost to UConn by the score of 77-74. That was the first of UConn's five national titles. Gonzaga beat UCLA 93-90 in the semifinal and went on to lose to Baylor in the championship game. So all four of these teams did win, but did not cover.

Dan Hurley and the UConn basketball program would sign up for a repeat of that, as it would mean the Huskies would be back in the title game. Given UConn's performance this season and throughout the tournament so far, it is a bit understandable that the Huskies are significant favorites against Alabama.

Why is UConn basketball 11.5-point favorites against Alabama?

The UConn basketball team won its four games this tournament by 39, 17, 30 and 25. The first game came against No. 16 seed Stetson, the second against No. 9 seed Northwestern the third against No. 5 seed San Diego State and the fourth against No. 3 seed Illinois. The blowouts against Stetson and Northwestern were not surprising, and neither is beating San Diego State and Illinois. However, beating San Diego State and Illinois in the fashion the Huskies did is not normal. Not against three and five seeds.

The recent performance plays into the spread being in favor of UConn, but the advanced metrics do as well. The Huskies are the No. 1 overall team on Kenpom. They have the No. 1 offense by adjusted offensive efficiency and the No. 4 defense by adjusted defensive efficiency. Needless to say, UConn is the most well-rounded team in the tournament.

Also, when looking at Alabama's metrics, they are very similar to Illinois. Illinois is the No. 10 team on Kenpom, while Alabama is No. 12. Illinois is the No. 4 offense according to adjusted efficiency, previously the No. 2 offense before the game against UConn, and is the No. 80 defense according to defensive adjusted efficiency. Alabama is the No. 3 offense and No. 104 defense.

The Crimson Tide's offense is dangerous, and they could win this game with a hot shooting night from three. However, the Huskies' defense is going to present a tough task. Stephon Castle is a great defender on the outside, and Donovan Clingan shuts down the paint.

It will be interesting to see if UConn can cover against Alabama next weekend.