After a long break, the UFC is back with its first Pay-Per-View event of 2023 when UFC 283 touches down in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Stay tuned for our UFC odds series with a Bonfim-Lazzez prediction and pick.

Prelims for UFC 283 begin at 8:00 pm/ET, 5:00 pm/PT. Gabriel Bonfim and Mounir Lazzez will kick off the action in a fight that’s sure to bring fireworks. Later on in the prelims, we’ll see ‘Shogun’ Rua in his final MMA fight, as well as fellow Brazilians Thiago Moises and Gregory Rodrigues. Who will come out on top in Brazil? Stay tuned for our UFC odds and picks series.

Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

UFC 283 Odds: Gabriel Bonfim-Mounir Lazzez Odds

Gabriel Bonfim: -168

Mounir Lazzez: +136

Over (2.5) rounds: +122

Under (2.5) rounds: -156

How to Watch Gabriel Bonfim vs. Mounir Lazzez


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Why Gabriel Bonfim Will Win

It’s a big night for the Bonfim family, as brothers Ismael and Gabriel take to the octagon to make their respective UFC debuts in front of their home country Brazil. We’ve seen both siblings and spouses fight on the same card, often with their performances fueling each other. Gabriel Bonfim will be watching his brother Ismael very closely in the early prelims – either result will be sure to light a fire underneath him.

Bonfim is a dangerous submission artist. Much like his brother Ismael, he attacks from all areas on the ground. Perhaps having a brother in MMA makes for a built-in training partner. Gabriel will have to rely on his ground game as he’ll be standing across an experienced striker in Mounir Lazzez. Lazzez has shown wrinkles in his grappling game early on through his UFC tenure, so it will be vital for Bonfim to keep it competitive on the feet. If he can wrestle Lazzez into a takedown, he should be able to keep him down. From there, he will look to attack submissions in the realm he’s most comfortable in.

Why Mounir Lazzez Will Win

Mounir Lazzez will enjoy a 4-inch reach advantage in this fight, much like he does in most of his fights. The Tunisian kickboxer has faced a few tests early in his UFC career. In his wins, Lazzez was able to land clean, powerful shots on his opponents. His ability to find the opponent’s chin while backing up is an impressive facet of his game, but he’ll want to work on his footwork keeping up with his fast hands. His propensity to stand straight up leaves him open to looping power shots.

It’s from this stance, however, that Lazzez is able to generate so much power behind his leg kicks. He’s able to use his legs as freely as his arms, so his ability to mix up his striking always poses a problem for opponents. A weakness in his game has been his gas tank, he’s often found mouth-breathing late in fights and lets his hands drop. With certain fighters who get stronger as the fight goes on, this presents matchup issues for Lazzez. A big question here will be if he can sustain his high-output striking through all three rounds. If he can, he’ll be able to point-fight his way to a decision.

Final Gabriel Bonfim-Mounir Lazzez Prediction & Pick

Mounir Lazzez has the clear striking advantage here. However, his first three performances have been lackluster and he has not honed in all of his capabilities. Gabriel Bonfim can win this fight if he gets it to the ground, an area where we’ve seen Lazzez struggle in time after time.

Final Gabriel Bonfim-Mounir Lazzez Prediction & Pick: Gabriel Bonfim (-168)