Subscribe
Follow Us
We continue our prediction and pick series from the UFC 287 Main Card in Miami, Florida. This next fight is an exciting tilt between two fan-favorites in the Welterweight (170 lb) Division. Kevin “Trailblazer” Holland will square off against Argentina's Santiago Ponzinibbio. Check out our UFC odds series for our Holland-Ponzinibbio prediction and pick.
Kevin Holland is 23-9 as a professional fighter and has gone 10-6 since joining the UFC. Always down for a scrap, he's quickly become a fan-favorite with his wild and technical striking, coupled with his active mouth. His most recent wins are against Alex Oliveira and Tim Means, but Holland's gone just 2-4 in his last six. He'll look to get back on track against a game opponent. Holland stands 6'3″ with an 81-inch reach.
Santiago Ponzinibbio is 29-6 as a mixed martial artist and has gone 11-5 in his time with the UFC. After winning the Ultimate Fighter Brazil 2, Ponzinibbio went on to win nine of his first 11 UFC fights. In his last five, he's 2-3 but is most recently coming off a huge KO-win over Alex Morono. A win here would put him right back in the rankings as he'll meet an equally-tested fighter in Holland. Ponzinibbio stands 6'0 with a 73-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC 287 Odds: Kevin Holland-Santiago Ponzinibbio Odds
Kevin Holland: -265
Santiago Ponzinibbio: +200
Over (2.5) rounds: +108
Under (2.5) rounds: -136
How to Watch Kevin Holland vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
TV: UFC PPV
Stream: ESPN+ UFC PPV
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET/ 7:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
Why Kevin Holland Will Win
Kevin Holland has become known for his loud mouth during fights, but backs it up well with his unique ability to mix his boxing with his Karate background. Holland is very rangy and uses reach advantages well. If he's the longer guy, he'll push off with jabs and keep his opponents at distance with leg kicks. He has a ton of pop in his hands and has been known to knock opponents down. While he's not a grappling whiz, Holland has very creative jiu jitsu on the ground and can hold his own in wrestling transitions.
A problem for Holland has been his output when he's getting out-struck on the feet. If he can't find a range, Holland will fall behind in the striking department and not remain disciplined. He'll offset it by trying to get in his opponents' head and can fall behind on the scorecards in a hurry if he isn't diligent. He got a reality check against Wonderboy and should be more focused on output coming into this one.If Holland can keep Ponzinibbio at range and stuff the takedowns, he should win this fight behind his combinations. However, he can't let Ponzinibbio press him against the cage without retaliation or he'll see this one slip through his fingers in a hurry.
Why Santiago Ponzinibbio Will Win
Ponzinibbio has a style that has served him very well thus far, but will really have to be sharp if he wants to get this upset. He's had problems in the past with not being able to find the range against guys and he'll have a tough test doing so against a long fighter like Holland. Still, Ponzinibbio showed great discipline in his striking against Alex Morono in his last fight. Facing a new opponent on late-notice, Ponzinibbio was able to stick his jab and keep Morono on the back foot. He's very calm in heated exchanges and keeps his shots tights, but powerful.
Ponzinibbio does a good job of moving his head and and keeping his feet active. He's very bouncy and will have much more movement against the style of Holland. His best path to victory will be to dart in and out of range with his jab. He has a ton of power in his hooks, so he should look to circle away from Holland during the exchanges. If Ponzinibbio can stay disciplined in the range, he could get this upset win.
Final Kevin Holland-Santiago Ponzinibbio Prediction & Pick
This is going to be an interesting matchup given the recent performances Kevin Holland has had inside of the octagon. Ponzinibbio has been an example of consistency lately and we know what we're going to get with him during the fight. The unknown, however, is how Kevin Holland will respond and whether he shows that controlled aggressive that he's so good with. The best version of Kevin Holland easily beats the best version of Santiago Ponzinibbio, so let's take him to win in this one. Let's sprinkle him on the submission line as well.
Final Kevin Holland-Santiago Ponzinibbio Prediction & Pick: Kevin Holland (-265); by Submission (+700)
