Subscribe
Follow Us
We're back with another prediction and pick for this monumental UFC 294 Main Card from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi. The Main Card will open with this fight in the deepest division in MMA at Bantamweight (135 lb) as Russia's Said Nurmagomedov takes on Tajikistan's Muin Gafurov. We should be in for a banger with this one! Check out our UFC odds series for our Nurmagomedov-Gafurov prediction and pick.
Said Nurmagomedov (17-3) has gone 6-2 during his UFC fights since 2018. Nurmagomedov was able to win four consecutive fights against good competition, but dropped his most recent bout against Jonathan Martinez. He was once again listed as a big betting favorite in his last fight, so it's not surprising to see his gap shorten this time around. Said Nurmagomedov stands 5'8″ with a 70-inch reach.
Muin Gafurov (18-5) is currently 0-1 in his UFC career thus far after losing his debut fight against John Castaneda. He stepped into that fight on short notice and couldn't find any sort of rhythm with his striking. With a full camp and his loss behind him, Muin Gafurov will look to stand and strike with one of the division's most willing kickboxers. He stands 5'7″ with a 68-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 294 Odds: Said Nurmagomedov-Muin Gafurov Odds
Said Nurmagomedov: -225
Muin Gafurov: +185
Over 2.5 rounds: -125
Under 2.5 rounds: -105
How to Watch Said Nurmagomedov vs. Muin Gafurov
TV: ESPN+ Pay-Per-View
Stream: ESPN+, Watch ESPN
Time: 12:00 p.m. ET/ 9:00 a.m. PT (Main Card)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Said Nurmagomedov Will Win
Said Nurmagomedov has had a lot to live up to in the UFC, simply given his last name in this sport. While he's not the traditional grappler many may assume, he's been able to find submission wins as of late, making him an even more dangerous contender. Nurmagomedov saw a ton of success standing and striking against lesser opponents, but he ran into a brick wall when faced with the fast hands of Jonathan Martinez. Muin Gafurov fights more like some of Nurmagomedov's earlier opponents, so expect him to have the advantage in speed and movement in this one.
While Said Nurmagomedov has a ton of weapons in his arsenal to finish a fight, it's worth noting that half of his wins have come by way of decision. He, like his opponent, has never gotten finished so we should see a war between these two fighters. If Nurmagomedov can keep his gas tank and strike with output over three rounds, he'll be able to do enough damage on the scorecards as the more active fighter. We've seen Gafurov get sloppy in the past once he's tired, so don't be surprised if we see another guillotine attempt from Nurmagomedov as he looks for the finish.
Why Muin Gafurov Will Win
As previously stated, Muin Gafurov has never been finished in his career and has managed to notch all but one of his wins by finish. He's very heavy-handed and throws strikes with bad intentions. While he's not the most technical fighter, his punches find a way to land as he often lunges forward through his strikes. In this fight, Gafurov will have to be diligent and not over-extend himself against a crisp counter-striker like Nurmagomedov. If he can use his head movement and wait to sit back on his punches, Gafurov could have some opportunities to stun Nurmagomedov with a clean shot.
We haven't seen his wrestling get tested much until this point, but it's safe to assume that Gafurov will prove to be the stronger guy in the cage with his wide frame. He could pose a problem if Nurmagomedov tries to take this fight to the ground, so expect Gafurov to try and keep this one standing and in striking range. If they end up getting into a phone booth, expect Gafurov to land some of the harder shots in the pocket.
Final Said Nurmagomedov-Muin Gafurov Prediction & Pick
Said Nurmagomedov was truly tested in his last fight against Jonathan Martinez and you'd have to imagine he went back and made changes to his game. Gafurov is still relatively fresh and while he was competitive in his debut, doesn't seem to match up the same way against the skills of Nurmagomedov. If Said can keep this fight standing and limit his damage from shots inside, we should see him control this fight with his kickboxing and circling towards the outside. Let's take him to win this close fight by decision.
Final Said Nurmagomedov-Muin Gafurov Prediction & Pick: Said Nurmagomedov (-225); Wins by Decision (+220)
