We’re back to bring you another prediction and pick for UFC 295 as the Main Card opens up from Madison Square Garden in New York City. The first fight will take place in the Featherweight (145 lb) Division as be see Brazil’s Diego Lopes take on Philly’s own Pat Sabatini. You won’t want to miss this high-level grappling affair! Check out our UFC odds series for our Lopes-Sabatini prediction and pick.
Diego Lopes (22-6) has gone 1-1 in his UFC fights over the last year, but he’s immediately proving himself as an established prospect in his division. He’s a longtime Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt and he serves as the main BJJ coach for several notable UFC fighters, including Champion Alexa Grasso. He comes into this fight fresh off a submission win over Gavin Tucker and will hope for a similar result against Sabatini. Lopes stands 5’11” with a 72.5-inch reach.
Pat Sabatini (18-4) has gone an impressive 5-1 since joining the UFC roster in 2021. He’s paving his way through the Featherweight Division with his superior wrestling and won his last fight against Lucas Almeida via submission. His last loss came against a striker in Damon Jackson, so he’ll be relieved to be facing another grappler here in this one. Sabatini stands 5’8″ with a 70-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 295 Odds: Diego Lopes-Pat Sabatini Odds
Diego Lopes: +100
Pat Sabatini: -120
Over 2.5 rounds: +105
Under 2.5 rounds: -135
How to Watch Diego Lopes vs. Pat Sabatini
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+, Watch ESPN
Time: 10:00 p.m. ET/ 7:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Diego Lopes Will Win
Diego Lopes gave rising prospect Movsar Evloev a run for his money during his debut in the UFC earlier this year. He couldn’t get it done on the judges’ scorecards and lost via unanimous decision due to the striking discrepancy and wrestling differential. In his following fight, he took advantage of the new opponent and caught him in an armbar during the first round. His jiu-jitsu is second to none and he could be the best pure submission artist in the Featherweight Division. He’s also very tall and long for the division, giving him an edge over shorter guys when he’s working his submissions. With Sabatini being a wrestler, expect Diego Lopes to be extremely aggressive in chasing submissions from his back.
To win this fight, Diego Lopes will have to stay patient and active while trying to read what Sabatini is throwing at him. Sabatini is a very smart fighter and won’t typically force himself into bad positions. Diego Lopes thrives of catching his opponents off-guard with his jiu-jitsu, but his last two fights outlined a clear game plan for him and how his opponents can combat it. Expect Diego Lopes to be a willing striker in this fight as he tries to control the distance with his reach. If Sabatini begins to chase the takedown, only then will Diego Lopes look to take advantage on the ground.
Why Pat Sabatini Will Win
Pat Sabatini has had an extremely clean stint so far in the UFC and he still has yet to be submitted in his career. He’s an extremely talented wrestler and at his size, opponents often struggled to keep him from landing his takedowns. He has 12 submissions to his name and his greatest skill is his top pressure. Sabatini averages just under four takedowns per three rounds and he’s accurate on 45% of them. His takedown isn’t the best at 42%, but he’s very good at reversing scrambles and fighting out of 50/50 positions. Expect him to work tirelessly in trying to pass the guard of Diego Lopes.
For Pat Sabatini to win this fight, he’ll have to do his best work in trying to get inside on Diego Lopes. Lopes has just a 33% takedown defense and hasn’t seen many opponents try to take him to the ground up until this point. If Sabatini can put the pressure on him early, he could wear on Lopes’ gas tank and take this fight deep into the third round. From there, it’ll be a war of attrition and Sabatini is confident his cardio can hold up better at this weight class.
Final Diego Lopes-Pat Sabatini Prediction & Pick
This is going to be an extremely fun fight for those who are fans of a good grappling match. Both fighters are still refining their skills on the feet, but they each have a world of experience on the ground. We’ve seen grappler vs. grappler matchups cancel out and take place solely on the feet before. It’ll be very interesting to see which one of these fighters initiates the first grappling exchange here.
While Pat Sabatini is the more established fighter, he hasn’t faced someone with the length and elite jiu-jitsu that Diego Lopes possesses. Lopes is extremely dangerous off his back and if Sabatini take top control like I expect him to, Lopes will have several opportunities to lock something up from the bottom. This will be an extremely close fight, but we’ll take Diego Lopes for our prediction as he’ll be determined to be the first man to submit Pat Sabatini.
Final Diego Lopes-Pat Sabatini Prediction & Pick: Diego Lopes (+100); Wins by Submission (+330)
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