We’re back to bring you our predictions and picks for the massive UFC 295 card from Madison Square Garden in New York. We turn our attention towards the Lightweight (155 lb) Division for this next scrap between established UFC veterans. Jared Gordon of Queens, New York will take on the Danish Olympian Mark O. Madsen. Check out our UFC odds series for our Gordon-Madsen prediction and pick.
Jared Gordon (19-6) comes into this fight with a 7-5-1 record in the UFC since 2017. We saw his best performance come against Paddy Pimblett at UFC London where the vast majority of fans thought he was robbed of the victory. His following fight against Bobby Green was ruled a No Contest after an accidental clash of heads, so he’s hoping his luck can turn around fighting in front of his hometown fans. Gordon stands 5’9″ with a 68-inch reach.
Mark O. Madsen (12-1) comes into this fight with a 4-1 record in the UFC since 2021. He’s a former Olympian for Denmark’s National Wrestling Team and he’s seen his success translate well to the UFC. At 39 years old, his arrival to the UFC came relatively late, but he’s making the most of his opportunity and could have the biggest win of his career against Gordon at UFC 295. Madsen stands 5’8″ with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 295 Odds: Jared Gordon-Mark O. Madsen Odds
Jared Gordon: -205
Mark O. Madsen: +158
Over 2.5 rounds: -298
Under 2.5 rounds: +220
How to Watch Jared Gordon vs. Mark O. Madsen
TV: ESPN+ Pay-Per-View
Stream: ESPN+, Watch ESPN
Time: 6:00 p.m. ET/ 3:00 p.m. PT (Early Prelims)
*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Jared Gordon Will Win
Jared Gordon has had a rough stretch over the last two fights and he’s waiting for things to finally go his way. He fought one of the best fights of his career and had a complete performance against Paddy Pimblett. He’s turned into a very patient striker and lunges forward with quick combinations. He has has great head movement and can stay in the pocket while swinging for the fences. He was doing well in his last fight, but the clash of heads with Bobby Green stopped all momentum and he wasn’t able to continue. We’re hoping he’s back to full health and he’ll be ready to put on a show in front of his home crowd.
The crowd support for Jared Gordon will be extremely important during this bout. He’s an emotional fighter and the crowd will certainly give him an added boost during low points of this fight. Clearly, he’ll be facing an olympic-caliber wrestler and will have to defend himself on the ground. He’s got a solid 62% takedown defense and should be able to fight through the scrambles with Madsen. If he can keep this fight standing, Gordon will have a great shot to put this one away with his hands.
Why Mark O. Madsen Will Win
Mark O. Madsen’s last two wins came against veterans Clay Guida and Vinc Pichel. He performed very well in those fights, but he wasn’t able to keep up against a young prospect like Grant Dawson. Gordon will be closer in age to Madsen, and the Danish Olympian will have the clear advantage on the ground. He’s got a 66% accuracy with his takedowns, but doesn’t see a lot of takedowns come back his way due to his wrestling acumen. In the striking, Madsen gets better with each fight but he can still get caught standing straight up and not covering his chin.
To win this fight, Mark Madsen will have a clear path to victory with his wrestling. Jared Gordon has done a good job of negating opponents’ wrestling in the past and has a 62% takedown defense, but he hasn’t face an experienced wrestler like Madsen in the past. Madsen has the work ethic of an Olympian and his cardio is fantastic throughout the fight. If Jared Gordon neglects to work on his wrestling during his camp ahead of this fight, he could be in for a long night on the mats with Madsen.
Final Jared Gordon-Mark O. Madsen Prediction & Pick
Following the Paddy Pimblett fight, Jared Gordon was set to be on a positive trajectory as his game was finally seeing improvements. His has a solid chin and will be able to withstand whatever striking Madsen throws at him, but the key will be competing in the wrestling. If Mark O. Madsen can get his takedowns without any resistance, he should be able to win this fight. However, for our prediction, we’ll ride with the hometown fighter as Jared Gordon bounces back in a big way.
Final Jared Gordon-Mark O. Madsen Prediction & Pick: Jared Gordon (-205)
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