UFC 295: Jiri Prochazka vs. Alex Pereira continues on the prelims with the featured fight on the prelims in the flyweight division between Steve Erceg and Alessandro Costa. Erceg got a big victory in his short-notice debut against David Dvorak at UFC 289 meanwhile, Costa stepped up tp fight against Jimmy Flick in his second fight inside the octagon to win via TKO for his first UFC victory. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Erceg-Costa prediction and pick.
Steve Erceg (10-1) was one of the top flyweight prospects as he came into his short-notice debut fight against top-15-ranked David Dvorak at UFC 289. He was able to do as he pleased in that fight just beating Dvorak in all facets of the fight. He was originally scheduled to take on Matt Schnell but he had to withdraw due to injury and now will take on Alessandro Costa for their featured preliminary fight at UFC 295.
Alessandro Costa (13-3) got his chance to make a good first impression on the Contender Series to no avail even after coming away with the win. He stayed ready and jumped at the opportunity to face off against one of the top-ranked flyweight contenders Amir Albazi on short notice whom he unfortunately lost to. Costa was then able to get his first win inside the octagon when he took on Jimmy Flick who he battered his legs with kicks eventually ending him via TKO ground and pound. He will be stepping in short notice once again to jump at the opportunity to get a high-profile win against Steve Erceg at UFC 295.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 295 Odds: Steve Erceg-Alessandro Costa Odds
Steve Erceg: -198
Alessandro Costa: +164
Over 2.5 Rounds: -130
Under 2.5 Rounds: +100
How to Watch Steve Erceg vs. Loopy Godinez
TV: ESPN
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 6:00 p.m. ET/ 3:00 p.m. PT (Prelims)
Why Steve Erceg Will Win
Steve Erceg made the most of his short-notice opportunity at UFC 289 when he dominated David Dvorak for the entirety of the fight. He is more known for submission game with six of his nine wins coming by submission but his striking was on full display in that fight he had with Dvorak as well.
He was set to take on a much more favorable matchup against Matt Schnell his original opponent and now will have the task of going against the dangerous Alessandro Costa this weekend. What Erceg has gone his way in this matchup is that he has a big height and reach advantage over Costa and will need to utilize that to its fullest extent in this fight. If he can use his long-range attacks, especially his kicks to keep Costa at the end of his strikes he can make it win number two inside the octagon.
Why Alessandro Costa Will Win
Alessandro Costa is a dangerous fight for anyone to take on short notice. Of Costa's 13 wins 10 of them have come inside the distance with four knockouts and six submissions. Much like his counterpart, Costa's best work is done on the mat as he is a high-level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt but he also packs some insane power for his size as well.
If Costa can utilize the leg kicks in this fight as he did against Jimmy Flick he can make Erceg a stationary target to the point he can start landing his heavy strikes. Also, Costa has the wrestling to penetrate the leaky takedown defense of Erceg to take him to the mat and essentially dominate him there as well. It's up to Costa to stay out of the danger against Erceg and mix things up to ultimately get the win on Saturday night.
Final Steve Erceg-Alessandro Costa Prediction & Pick
This should be an exciting fight between two of the top prospects in the flyweight division. Erceg really looked sensational in his debut fight but he gets a much harder matchup to gameplan for in this matchup with Alessandro Costa. Costa is a fighter that can win anywhere the fight goes. It is a dangerous proposition for Erceg to just stay at range eating leg kicks and heavy hooks but it's also dangerous to play on the mat with someone who can snatch a submission in transition at any moment. There are just more ways for Costa to get the job done in this matchup. Ultimately, Erceg looks good early until Costa starts to batter Erceg on the feet and then he eventually takes him down beating him up there for the TKO finish and his second win in his UFC career.
Final Steve Erceg-Alessandro Costa Prediction & Pick: Alessandro Costa (+164), Under 2.5 Rounds (+100)
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