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UFC Brazil: Jailton Almeida vs. Derrick Lewis continues on the main card with the featured fight in the heavyweight division between Rodrigo Nascimento and Don'Tale Mayes. Nascimento has won two straight fights both by split decision meanwhile, Mayes was able to get back on track with the biggest win of his career against Andrei Arlovski. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Nascimento-Mayes prediction and pick.
Rodrigo Nascimento (10-1) was able to win three of his four fights during his time in the UFC with one of those three wins coming against the aforementioned Don'Tale Mayes making this fight a very odd rematch. Nascimento was able to submit Mayes in their last fight and will be looking to repeat the same success he had in that fight this weekend in his native Brazil this Saturday night.
Don'Tale Mayes (10-5) was looking like he could've been on his way out of the promotion coming into his last fight against Andrei Arlovski but that was until he knocked him out. Now, Mayes gets to right his wrong against a familiar foe when he takes on Rodrigo Nascimento in enemy territory this Saturday night.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Brazil Odds: Rodrigo Nascimento-Don'Tale Mayes Odds
Rodrigo Nascimento: -205
Don'Tale Mayes: +170
Over 1.5 Rounds: -210
Under 1.5 Rounds: +160
How to Watch Rodrigo Nascimento vs. Don'Tale Mayes
TV: ESPN+
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET/ 6:00 p.m. PT (Main Card)
Why Rodrigo Nascimento Will Win
Rodrigo Nascimento is looking to break through into the top 15 of the heavyweight division and for him to do so he needs to go through Don'Tale Mayes one last time. He has shown the ability to hang in there on the feet with good strikers but then use his grappling to his advantage like he did the last time these two fought.
However, Mayes looked much improved in his last fight against Arlovski where he was able to land the knockout but in his two fights prior he's shown that his grappling is still his biggest weakness in his game. If Nascimento can hang in there on the feet and can take a punch, it should only be a matter of time until Nascimento takes him down and possibly gets another submission victory.
Why Don'Tale Mayes Will Win
Don'Tale Mayes is coming off the best win of his entire 15-fight professional career. While he did land the knockout blow, Arlovski did have some moments in that fight but ultimately Mayes was able to get the better of him and landed a devastating right hook that had him crashing to the canvas.
Mayes knows going in that Nascimento will want to get this fight to the mat as early as possible. He will need to utilize his front kicks and his jab to keep Nascimento at bay and then land another counter right as attempts to come in range to land a takedown. If Mayes can keep this fight on the feet he has a legitimate chance to get on the first winning streak of his UFC career and get that win back he's been longing for.
Final Rodrigo Nascimento-Don'Tale Mayes Prediction & Pick
These two heavyweights collide for a rematch to show who is the dominant one between the two of them. Nascimento has looked like a top 15-ranked fighter as of late even though his last two fights were close split decisions. Against Ilir Latifi he showed off his striking abilities and against Tanner Boser he showed off his dominant grappling. His ability to adapt to his opponent puts him in a good position coming into this matchup against Mayes.
While Mayes certainly looked his best against Arlovski, he didn't look like a world-beater the entire time in that fight. Arlovski was winning minutes until a hard right hook rocked him and put him down. He will need to keep this fight on his feet no matter what the cost is because if he is taken down the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt he could suffer the same fate as he did in their first encounter.
Ultimately, Nascimento and Mayes will come out swinging in the early going but it will be Nascimento pushing the pace and being the aggressor while Mayes attempts to stay on the outside utilizing his reach to keep him at bay but it will be Nascimento getting this fight to cage eventually taking Mayes down and sinking in yet another rear-naked choke finish giving him three wins in a row.
Final Rodrigo Nascimento-Don'Tale Mayes Prediction & Pick: Rodrigo Nascimento (-210), Over 1.5 Rounds (-210)
