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The UFC is back once again following an extended break through the holidays as we'll open 2025 with a Fight Night card from Las Vegas. 28 fighters will hit the scales for their respective bouts as they all chase the same goal of achieving UFC gold. Check out our UFC odds series for our fight-by-fight betting predictions and picks.
The Main Event will feature a rematch from 2019 as No. 6-ranked Mackenzie Dern takes on No. 8-ranked Amanda Ribas in the Strawweight Division. Ribas got the best of Dern during their first meeting, but both fighters have since greatly improved their skills and will be fighting for a potential title shot with a win.
The Co-Main Event will feature a pair of hard-hitting welterweights as UFC veteran Santiago Ponzinibbio takes on the steadily rising Carlston Harris. Both fighters come into this bout following a loss and are looking to prove themselves once again in the division, so expect this one to be exciting from start to finish.
Here are the UFC Vegas 101 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 101 Odds: Betting Props & Methods of Victory
Preston Parsons vs. Jacobe Smith OVER 1.5 Rounds (-220)
Carlston Harris Wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+165)
Mackenzie Dern Wins by Submission (+450)
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Preston Parsons vs. Jacobe Smith OVER 1.5 Rounds (-220)
Preston Parsons will have to pivot opponents as Jacobe Smith will step into this spot on a week's notice to save the fight. Smith is billed as a -550 betting favorite and given his performance on Dana White's Contender Series, he could be a new prospect to watch in the Welterweight Division. Smith has all the finishing upside during this matchup, but we could see him display some patience as he fights in the UFC octagon for the first time.
Preston Parsons is also an extremely tough competitor and it won't be easy for Smith to get him out of there. Parsons will also be looking to employ some of his grappling techniques where he's most comfortable and has his best chance of winning this fight. Preston Parsons also stands to benefit from a three-round fight as we have yet to see the cardio of Smith really be tested. Let's roll with the total over in rounds as both fighters meet for a back-and-forth, gritty fight.
Carlston Harris Wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+165) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
Santiago Ponzinibbio is one of the more consistent fighters on the roster in terms of knowing what you'll get each time he steps into the cage. He's very fundamental in his fighting style and does everything well from his striking to his grappling. However, he's been lacking finishing ability during his last few fights and the activity of Carlston Harris is too much to be contained during a three-round fight.
Ultimately, we should see a ton of solid looks from Ponzinibbio, but I expect Carlston Harris to be the one landing his shots more often and with more power behind them. Harris has also been adding new wrinkles to his fight game and he's excited to show some of his skills of on Saturday. Let's roll with him to find an exciting knockout in this one.
Mackenzie Dern Wins by Submission (+450) vs. Amanda Ribas
It's surprising to ever see a jiu jitsu specialist like Mackenzie Dern with such long odds to land a submission, but she admittedly struggled to use her grappling in the first meeting with Ribas. Amanda Ribas is the betting favorite this time around, but it's clear Mackenzie Dern had a very strong camp ahead of this one and is in phenomenal shape just days out from her fight. We can expect Dern to return to some of her jiu jitsu roots if she finds solid position during this one.
While Amanda Ribas is likely to dictate the striking pace during this one, Dern is bound to match her strike-for-strike and keep this a close fight on the feet. Both women respect each other's BJJ pedigree, so I don't expect we'll see a full grappling match in this one. However, Ribas initiated the wrestling during their first fight and I think Dern will be ready for it this time around. Let's roll with Mackenzie Dern to find a submission for the win at UFC Vegas 101.
