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We're back to bring you our final betting prediction and pick for UFC Vegas 101 as we settle things in the Women's Strawweight (115) Division. Fellow Brazilians will meet for the Main Event as No. 6-ranked Mackenzie Dern takes on No. 8-ranked Amanda Ribas. Check out our UFC odds series for our Dern-Ribas prediction and pick.
Mackenzie Dern (14-5) has gone 9-5 inside of the UFC since 2018. She's gone 2-3 over her last five fights but managed to bounce back from consecutive losses with a big win over Loopy Godinez her last time out. She'll take the role of underdog once again as she faces one of her familiar rivals. Dern stands 5-foot-4 with a 63-inch reach.
Amanda Ribas (13-5) has gone 7-4 inside the UFC since 2019. She's alternated wins and losses over her last eight bouts, most recently losing to Rose Namajunas via unanimous decision. While she was humbled during her last showing, she comes into this bout as the betting favorite hoping to once again contend for the title. Ribas stands 5-foot-4 with a 66-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 101 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 101 Odds: Mackenzie Dern-Amanda Ribas Odds
Mackenzie Dern: +164
Amanda Ribas: -198
Over 4.5 rounds: -215
Under 4.5 rounds: +165
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Why Mackenzie Dern Will Win
Mackenzie Dern looked the best she has in a while during her recent win over Loopy Godinez. Most known for her world-class Brazilian Jiu Jitsu pedigree, Dern showed a great capability to land shots on the feet and improved her movement against a very athletic and technical fighter in Godinez. While Dern will always have the BJJ in her back pocket to use when necessary, it's very promising to see these developments in her ability to piece combinations together.
🇧🇷Mackenzie Dern is a known submission artist.
She’s at +490 to win by submission. 🥋 pic.twitter.com/hh44Qlo7my
— Home Of Fight Picks (@theHOFPicks) January 9, 2025
The first time these two met in 2019, Dern admittedly felt unprepared for the bout and has clearly been focused throughout this fight week ahead of this rematch. Her win over Angela Hill was the first time we really saw Dern make drastic improvements in her striking and she's had great experience fighting against the best in the division. With her striking where it's at now, expect a much more dangerous effort from Mackenzie Dern.
Why Amanda Ribas Will Win
Amanda Ribas learned a lot from her unanimous loss to Rose Namajunas as she was inches away from securing a possible title shot with a win. Still, it was impressive to see her evolution and improved patience inside a five-round environment. Ribas loves to start fast and has great output throughout a fight due to her cardio. She could have an edge if this fight sees the later rounds and she's still fresh in terms of her striking. She also landed four takedowns on an elite grappler like Rose Namajunas, so don't be surprised if she's aggressive with her jiu jitsu in this one.
“Zhang Weili, if she wins, I'm here. No rematches.”#UFCVegas101 headliner Amanda Ribas sets her sights on the Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez winner at UFC 312. pic.twitter.com/kirgitFVcI
— MMA Junkie (@MMAJunkie) January 8, 2025
Amanda Ribas knows she can exact a title shot with a win over Mackenzie Dern, so she's coming into this fight with an extreme sense of motivation and pride. She's also confident knowing she got the best of Dern back in 2019, so it's a huge psychological boost for her when she'll be in there throwing her techniques.
Final Mackenzie Dern-Amanda Ribas Prediction & Pick
This is set to be a great rematch between two top contenders in the division and since their first meeting in 2019, both women have gotten significantly better in refining their skills. It wouldn't come as a surprise if the winner was next-in-line for a potential Strawweight title fight.
Both fighters are fairly equal in their striking. Amanda Ribas certainly throws a higher volume at 4.6 strikes landed per minute, but we can give the slight edge to Mackenzie Dern in terms of the power. Both are world-class jiu jitsu practitioners, but we have to give the edge to Dern as we have yet to see her in a compromising spot when grappling.
It'll be interesting to see who initiates the wrestling first, but my guess is that it would be Ribas looking to land some ground-and-pound. Still, we've see grappling matchups like this turn into kickboxing fights due to the respect on both sides.
This will be a close one, but we have to give the slight edge to Amanda Ribas and her unrelenting pressure. If she's down early, her output will only increase as she's determined to land a title shot.
Final Mackenzie Dern-Amanda Ribas Prediction & Pick: Amanda Ribas (-198)
