We’re back with another prediction and pick for the Prelims of UFC Vegas 78 as this next bout takes place in the Women’s Strawweight (115 lb) Division. Brazil’s Jaqueline Amorim will be taking on Mexico’s Montserrat Conejo in a very competitive matchup. Check out our UFC odds series for our Amorim-Conejo prediction and pick.

Jaqueline Amorim (6-1) has gone 0-1 since entering the UFC. She was a 4-0 undefeated prospect in LFA but dropped her UFC debut against a veteran in Sam Hughes. She’s got five submissions to her name, but will have to work on her wrestling after seeing what happened in her first fight. She comes in as the moderate favorite in this matchup. Amorim stands 5’3″ with a 67.5-inch reach.

Montserrat Conejo (10-2) is currently 1-1 while fighting in the UFC. She won her debut fight in impressing fashion but ran into a brick wall when she faced Amanda Lemos and got KO’d in the first round. A bounce back win here as the significant underdog would do wonders for her confidence as she tries to get back on the winning track, Conejo stands 5’0″ with a 61-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

UFC Vegas 78 Odds: Jaqueline Amorim-Montserrat Conejo Odds

Jaqueline Amorim: -265

Montserrat Conejo: +200

Over (2.5) rounds: +108

Under (2.5) rounds: -138

How to Watch Jaqueline Amorim vs. Montserrat Conejo

TV: ESPN

Stream: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass, fuboTV

Time: 4:00 p.m. ET/ 1:00 p.m. PT (Prelims)

*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Jaqueline Amorim Will Win

Jaqueline Amorim is a very dangerous submission artist on the ground. Of her six wins, five have come by way of submission and she’s got a great chance to notch another one against Conejo. Amorim’s striking game isn’t particularly developed, but she uses it well to set up her takedown opportunities. During her last fight, she struggled against the chain wrestling of Sam Hughes and saw difficulty when held on the ground. She’ll have to improve her wrestling ahead of this one if she wants to have a true advantage over Conejo.

Amorim will win this fight by not rushing in too early and waiting for a perfect takedown. She’s levels above her opponent on the ground and would be smart to take the fight to the mat. She wants to avoid a brawl as Conejo will have the greater power in her hands. Amorim, however, will have the better fundamentals and can win this fight if she sticks to her game plan and chases the submission.

Why Montserrat Conejo Will Win

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Conjeo looked great in her debut fight, so it was tough to see her get knocked out so quickly by Amanda Lemos. Granted, Lemos is a tough ask to face in your second fight as she continues to be one of the top contenders in the division. Too many conclusions can’t be drawn from her last fight as she’ll be facing someone much closer to her skill level in this one. Conejo will have a strength and power advantage and while she’s a bit outsized, could have the edge in the striking as well.

To win this fight, Conejo should sit back on punches and wait to counter Amorim. She’s got the faster hands and will be able to do her best damage from in-close, so look for Conejo to close the distance whenever she feels behind in the fight. If she can reverse the roles and take Amorim down while keeping her down, she could see some similar success to Amorim’s previous opponent. Look for Conjeo to double-up on her power shots and sit back on the takedowns as she tries to keep this fight standing.

Final Jaqueline Amorim-Montserrat Conejo Prediction & Pick

This is going to be a very evenly-matched fight on the feet as both women try to feel each other out. Conejo will have the edge in power and can threaten the knockout if she lands one of her hooks clean. However, it’s expected that Amorim will be aware of the striking advantage and should look to take this fight to the ground. On the mats, the fight swings drastically in favor of Amorim and her submission skills.

For the prediction, we’ll go with Jaqueline Amorim to get the win in her second UFC appearance. She’s a sizable favorite and will look much better than she did during her debut. Her movement is enough to avoid the knockout from Conejo, so look for Amorim to get this fight to the ground and chase one of her submissions.

Final Jaqueline Amorim-Montserrat Conejo Prediction & Pick: Jaqueline Amorim (-265); Wins by Submission