We’re back with another prediction and pick for Saturday’s UFC Vegas 78 card from the UFC Apex. This next fight feature two behemoths in the Heavyweight Division as Michigan’s own Josh Parisian will take on Slovakia’s Martin Buday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Parisian-Buday prediction and pick.

Josh Parisian (15-6) has gone 2-3 since joining the UFC roster after winning both of his Contender Series fights. Parisian’s best win was his most recent when he TKO’d Alan Boudot in the second round. He lost his last fight to Jamal Pogues in a unanimous decision and he’s hoping that he can turn in a better performance against Buday. Parisian stands 6’4″ with a 79-inch reach.

Martin Buday (12-1) is perfect in the UFC so far at 3-0 after also winning a contract on DWCS. He three wins so far have been impressive as he’s beaten Chris Barnett, Lukas Brzeski, and Jake Collier. His competition has gotten slightly better with each fight and he’ll have his toughest test yet with Parisian. He’s been very active since joining the roster so he’s set to eye the rankings if he can pick up his fourth win. Buday stands 6’4″ with a 77-inch reach.

Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

UFC Vegas 78 Odds: Josh Parisian-Martin Buday Odds

Josh Parisian: +168

Martin Buday: -220

Over (2.5) rounds: -130

Under (2.5) rounds: +102

How to Watch Josh Parisian vs. Martin Buday

TV: ESPN

Stream: ESPN+, UFC Fight Pass, fuboTV

Time: 4:00 p.m. ET/ 1:00 p.m. PT (Prelims)

*Watch sports LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Josh Parisian Will Win

Josh Parisian is an interesting heavyweight in the sense that he favors his wrestling attack over his striking. However, Parisian spends most of his time grappling on the cage and maintaining top control on the ground. He doesn’t particularly threaten with any submissions and his ground-and-pound could see some more activity. On the feet, Parisian is very fundamental out the gate and will stick his jab early on. His technique suffers if he begins to get tired, so keeping his gas tank will be crucial in finding the win.

Parisian can win this fight by controlling the exchanges in the clinch and wrestling his way into top position. Parisian is very dangerous from close range on the feet and can throw heavy shots without much leverage. He’s great with his elbows and even has a spinning attack finish on his resume. Parisian also has a great chin and can withstand a shot, so he may want to turn this into a barn burner and give himself a chance with the knockout punch.

Why Martin Buday Will Win

Martin Buday has been able to stay perfect in the UFC thus far through a number of ways. Unlike many heavyweights, Buday does a great job of utilizing the low leg kicks. When he throws them, he’ll throw with a ton of power and looks to do serious damage with each kick. He’s also very patient on the feet and works behind a traditional 1-2 combination. He uses short jabs to close the distance and then throws uppercuts when he finds the target. Buday is extremely strong and will be able to hang with Parisian on the cage. His movement is a lot quicker and he should look to be the more active fighter in the cage.

When Martin Buday wins, it’s hardly the most exciting fight you’ll see. His best success comes when he’s methodically breaking his opponent down and winning the fight on a point-by-point basis. He doesn’t have the greatest power, but certainly possesses the ability to KO his opponent if he lands cleanly. Buday will likely look to control this fight on the feet and stuff the takedowns. Parisian’s success really hinges on his grappling, so look for Martin Buday to do everything he can in negating any work on the ground.

Final Josh Parisian-Martin Buday Prediction & Pick

Neither of these fighters has the best finishing ability right out of the gate. They’re both very methodical fighters and will look to feel each other out during the opening stages of this fight. Buday will likely see success on the feet early, prompting Parisian to find the takedown. His success is completely reliant on whether or not he finds them, so it’s going to be interesting to see who controls the grappling exchanges.

For the prediction, we’ll go with Martin Buday to get this win. He’s got more ways to win the fight and while he doesn’t have stunning knockout ability, he can certainly put Parisian out if he starts to land his combinations. Parisian looked sloppy against Jamal Pogues and couldn’t get any wrestling going. Let’s also look towards the over as both of these guys will look much slower by the third round.

Final Josh Parisian-Martin Buday Prediction & Pick: Martin Buday (-220); OVER 2.5 Rounds (-130)