Conference USA returns to play Wednesday night as UTEP plays host to FIU. It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a UTEP-FIU prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
UTEP is 1-5 on the season, without a win over an FBS team. They opened the season with a loss in conference play, falling to Jacksonville State 17-14. They attempted to make a comeback, scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter, but it was not enough. After rebounding with a win over Incarnate Word, it was back-to-back losses to Northwestern and Arizona. It was followed by a game with UNLV where UTEP was down 14 at the half and would lose 45-28. Finally, it was the second conference game for UTEP, and it was not close. UTEP was down ten at half and would lose 24-10.
Meanwhile, FIU comes into the game at 3-3 on the season. FIU opened with a loss to Louisana Tech. FIU had a lead of 17-3 in the second quarter, but after the lead was cut to 17-13 at the half, Louisana would score twice in the fourth quarter to win 22-17. They found a rebound with wins over Maine, North Texas, and UCONN before continuing conference play. They would face Liberty next. Liberty would take a 14-0 lead in the first quarter, and FIU would score but miss the PAT. Liberty then scored 24 straight points to win 38-6. Then with New Mexico State, they would be tied going into the fourth, but the Aggies would score 17 unanswered to win 34-17, dropping FIU to to 0-3 in conference play.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: UTEP-FIU Odds
UTEP: +1.5 (-108)
FIU: -1.5 (-112)
Over: 44.5 (-105)
Under: 44.5 (-115)
How to Watch UTEP vs. FIU Week 7
Time: 7:30 PM ET/ 4:30 PM PT
TV: ESPN2
Stream: FuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why UTEP Will Cover The Spread
UTEP has been led by Gavin Hardison. Hardison this year has been solid at times but struggled at others. In his last game, he went just 14-32 passing with a touchdown and three interceptions. That led to Kevin Hurley getting the start for UTEP. He was injured in the game, after passing for just 44 yards. Cade McConnell then came in, and it was another 44 yards of passing before a second injury. That led to Jake McNamara coming in and scoring the lone UTEP touchdown. Most likely this will lead to Gavin Hardison being back at quarterback. He has to protect the ball better than he has this season. He has seven total interceptions and six turnover-worthy passes this year.
UTEP does have a dup of quality running backs behind the quarterback. Deion Hankins has run for 381 yards this year with an average of 5.2 yards per carry. He has forced 22 missed tackles this season but only scored once. Meanwhile, Torrance Burgess Jr. has 366 yards on the ground this year on 68 attempts. He has 5.4 yards per carry this year with two scores as well. Combined the two running back have 13 carries for 15 yards, and are averaging over two yards per carry before first contact this year.
While the offense is in the bottom 30 in FBS football on offense, they are not much better on defense this year. They are 125th in the nationals against the run, and 125th in the red zone. Still, they are solid against the pass. The pass rush has been solid this year, but not great. They have 54 quarterback pressures this year with 11 sacks. Tyrice Knight has three sacks this year with five pressures, while Maurice Westmoreland has two sacks and nine pressures with two quarterback hits this year. In coverage, they have allowed 1,145 yards and seven scores while picking up two passes this year. The run defense has been the big issue. They have missed 40 tackles this year in the run game. Tyrice Knight has been great, with 30 stops for offensive failures this year and 41 tackles in the run game.
Why FIU Will Cover The Spread
The freshman Keyone Jenkins has been solid for FIU this year. On the year he is 83-140 passing this year for 1,251 yards and five touchdowns. He has made some big passes this year, with ten big-time throws this season. Still, he has been careless with the ball at times this season. He has six interceptions, six fumbles, and ten other turnover-worthy passes. Part of the issue has been pressure. He has been pressured on over one-third of his dropbacks this year, while Jenkins has been sacked 18 times. That givens Jenkins a 29 percent sacks rate when pressured this year.
FIU does have a solid running back in Shomari Lawrence. He has 331 yards on the ground this year with three touchdowns. He has been amazing this year after contact with 271 yards after contact this season. Meanwhile, Kejon Owens has scored three times this year on the ground and has 217 yards this year. He is averaging over 6.4 yards per carry this season, and he has been used much more in a zone running scheme, which is providing great blocking for him.
Meanwhile, the FIU defense has not been great this year either. They are 98th in the nation in total defense, while sitting 86th in rush defense and 88th in pass defense. The pass rush needs to get to the quarterback more often. the FIU defense does have 108 quarterback pressures this year, but they have just ten sacks. Three of them come from Alex Nobles, who also has 20 pressures this year and five quarterback hits. Meanwhile, FIU is also having trouble tackling in the run game. They have missed 41 tackles this year, often leading to huge gains and first downs.
Final UTEP-FIU Prediction & Pick
This is a matchup between two very even teams. Neither one is very good and especially rough on defense. There are two major differences in this game. First is the quarterback. The issue is not that Keyone Jenkins is better than Gavin Hardison, it is that Jenkins is healthier. UTEP had to run out a fourth-string quarterback last game. If Hardison cannot go, it will be McNamara making his first career start, and that gives a huge edge to FIU. The second is efficiency in the red zone. While FIU is not good in the red zone compared to national averages, they are better than UTEP. Overall, take FIU and lay a small amount of points.
Final UTEP-FIU Prediction & Pick: FIU -1.5 (-112)
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