The Detroit Lions came just short of finding their way to Super Bowl 58, as they suffered a crushing 34-31 loss at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. Of course, the main talking point from this game was Dan Campbell's aggressive decision-making on fourth-down, and how it likely ended up costing the Lions this game.
Detroit had control of this game for two-and-a-half quarters, but everything flipped when they unsuccessfully went for it on 4th-and-2 on the 49ers 28-yard line while holding a 24-10 lead, passing up a 46-yard field goal in the process. After San Fran stormed back to take a 27-24 lead, Campbell again passed up a field goal midway through the fourth quarter, this time from 48 yards out, to go for it on 4th-and-3, which the Lions once again failed to convert.
And in the blink of an eye, Detroit went from having complete control in this game to throwing away a shot to advance to the Super Bowl. While there were plays, such as a pair of Josh Reynolds drops and a Jahmyr Gibbs fumble, that didn't help their cause, there's no doubt that Campbell's ill-advised decisions on fourth-down just cost his team a chance to win it all in Las Vegas in two weeks.
Dan Campbell just cost the Lions a trip to the Super Bowl
Since taking over the Lions head coach back in 2021, Campbell has become arguably the most aggressive coach in the league. Teams have become more and more comfortable in going for it on fourth down in recent seasons, and Campbell has been the face of that movement. He stuck to his guns with his season on the line, and if you want to give him credit for that, that's fine.
The problem with giving Campbell credit for these calls is that, not only did it cost Detroit their season, but it's also precisely what Campbell wants to happen. Countless times we have seen Campbell defy conventional logic with his aggressive decision-making, and while sometimes it works, the results that have gone against him are far more notable than the ones that have worked in his favor.
Aside from just this game, perhaps the most memorable moment of the season was when Campbell inexplicably failed to convert a game-winning two-point conversion attempt three times against the Dallas Cowboys when all they needed was an extra point to tie the game. The Lions obviously lost, and everyone was scratching their head over Campbell's decision.
That was a regular season game, though, and at the end of the day, the consequences weren't all that bad. The Lions found their way to the NFC Championship, and had a great shot to beat the Niners. But then Campbell tried to make himself look like a genius by passing up a pair of field goal attempts to go for it on fourth-down, and now their season is over.
Dan Campbell didn't back down from his guns, but why is he getting credit for that decision? It'd be one thing if Detroit was constantly converting fourth-downs, but their 52.5 conversion percentage on fourth-down this season is right around the middle of the pack. Campbell wants to be an uber-aggressive coach, but for the most part, it's not actually helping his team out.
The decision to pass up the field goal in the third quarter on 4th-and-2 is one of the most egregious coaching decisions the NFL has ever seen. With a chance to take a three-possession lead over a 49ers team that had been dominated to that point, Campbell opened the door for them to sneak back into the game by allowing them to get a stop on fourth down. Reynolds should have caught the pass, yes, but truth be told, he shouldn't have even been put in that position in the first place.
Again, this game wasn't just a regular season contest; a trip to the Super Bowl was on the line. Campbell deserves credit for turning the Lions around, but to praise him for these calls, with so much on the line, is absolutely moronic. This one play single-handedly changed everything in this game, regardless of what analytics-junkies want to say.
After this decision, Detroit unraveled in record time, and less than four minutes later, the game was tied at 24 apiece. Again, plays happened in this stretch that didn't help the Lions, but if they kick the field goal instead, it's a whole different story. The pressure would have still been on San Francisco, rather than it almost immediately flipping onto Detroit. That's something that analytics simply cannot measure when it comes to the discussion of this topic.
In the eyes of some fans, Campbell's decision to not kick a game-tying field goal midway through the fourth quarter was an even worse decision. It's still an awful decision, but there was a bit more justification behind the decision at the time. Of course, that went out the window when the Lions scored a touchdown late in the fourth to ensure that they would lose by three points.
As a neutral fan, this was an unbelievably painful game to watch because of how poorly Campbell called the game. He was probably a few minutes away from punching his ticket to the Super Bowl if they kicked a field goal in the third. It's not a guarantee it would have gone through the uprights, but the conversion rate on field goals is higher than the conversion rate on fourth-downs.
Instead, he got overly confident, and blew Detroit's best chance of winning a Super Bowl in their franchise's history. You can say the Lions have a winning culture now, but getting back to this spot is far easier said than done, and truth be told, what has Detroit actually won? You can say Campbell trusted his players to deliver, but that's only partly true. He trusted his offense, but by going for fourth-down, he showed he didn't trust his defense to hold onto a sizable lead, or his special teams unit to convert under pressure. The sword cuts both ways.
You can't ever blame a loss on one person, and that's true here, as the Lions still had tons of chances to win this game regardless. And while hindsight is 20/20, Campbell's fourth-down decisions felt foolish in real time. Chances like this don't come around every year, and it's a shame that Dan Campbell couldn't get out of his own way to help his team find their way to the Big Game.
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