Subscribe
Follow Us
The 2022 World Cup Round of 16 is underway, and the defending champions France, the winners of D, take on the second-place side from Group C in Poland in their first knockout game. These matches are now win or go home, and we will have a winner — even if it has to go to penalties — so no odds for draws in this match. Now, it’s time to continue our World Cup odds series with a France-Poland prediction and pick!
France mostly dominated their group, beating Australia and Denmark. The B team did lose to Tunisia in the final Group Stage game, but that shouldn’t be cause for worry as at least eight starters began that game on the bench to rest. Poland drew with Mexico and beat Saudi Arabia 2-0, which was enough to get them through, despite losing to Argentina by the same score in their last match.
In this World Cup odds piece, we will look at the odds of the match, discuss why France could win, how Poland could win, and then make our picks for this Round of 16 showdown.
Here are the France vs. Poland World Cup odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
World Cup Odds: France-Poland Odds
France: -1200
Poland: +680
Over 2.5 Goals: -118
Under 2.5 Goals: -104
Why France Will Beat Poland
France will beat Poland because they are the far better, deeper team, and they have looked better this tournament than almost any other defending champion since Brazil last repeated in 1962.
Part of France looking so good is that 23-year-old Paris Saint-Germain forward Kylian Mbappe is taking his game to yet another level and maybe the best player in the entire world right now. Up front, he’s joined by veteran hitmen Olivier Giroud and Antione Griezmann to create the most potent frontline in the tournament.
There are some issues on the French side. The midfield is thin, the central defense is young, the goalkeeper is old, and manager Didier Deschamps preferred full-back-playing Hernandez brother, Lucas, is out with an injury, and Theo is in.
Even if one or more of these issues come to bear vs. Poland, France’s massive talent advantage all over the pitch should be able to pull them through. The key for France will be getting on the front foot and staying aggressive. The quicker they put a goal in, the quicker they can rob Poland of all hope and cruise to an easy victory.
Why Poland Will Beat France
Article Continues Below
Poland doesn’t have anywhere near the depth of talent that France does, but up front, Robert Lewandowski is as good or better than any striker in the world. This World Cup, he’s connected well with Piotr Zielinski in the midfield, and if those two get on the same page for even a moment vs. France, they can produce magic.
And that is how Poland will win this game, with hard-nosed defense and a moment of magic from Lewandowski and Zielinski.
The Polish defense did give up two goals vs. Argentina, but those were the only two tallies they gave up all tournament. In addition to the solid defense, 32-year-old Juventus goalkeeper Wojciech Szczęsny has been one of (if not) the best keeper in the tournament thus far.
The formula for a Polish victory is to make the game ugly. Tough defense, physicality with the French front line, and a few improbable saves from Szczęsny is the way that Poland moves on to face the winner of England vs. Senegal.
Final France-Poland Prediction & Pick
There is a case for Poland winning this game in the same way that any team can win on a given day. However, unless things go catastrophically wrong for France, Poland is likely heading home after Sunday’s match.
France is too good, too deep, and too dangerous in front of the net to go out in their first knockout game. The most likely way this game goes is that Poland defends hard at first, and Szczęsny makes a save or two, but the French talent ultimately wins out toward the back end of the first half.
As the game continues, France gets another goal or two, and they are able to keep Lewandowski under wraps. The Polish striker is an all-time great, but at 34, he’s not the physically dominant forward he used to be. The young, athletic Frenchmen at the back (likely Bayern Munich’s Dayot Upamecano and Liverpool’s Ibrahima Konate) will be able to physically overpower the Barcelona striker and keep him off the scoresheet.
This is why France wins 3-0 in the end.
Final France-Poland Prediction & Pick: France (-1200); Over 2.5 goals (-118)
