Everyone loves to watch moonshots in the MLB Home Run Derby, and there are sure to be some tonight. It is time to continue our MLB odds series with a special Home Run Derby longest home run prediction and pick.

The MLB Home Run Derby has seen some big home runs in its time. 2021 was the biggest year of bombs of them all. That year Juan Soto hit one 520 feet, while Trevor Story hit one 518 feet, and Pete Alonso hit one 514 feet. This was all done in Colorado though, where home runs come a little bit easier. Outside of Colorado, the big bombs belong to Aaron Judge. He hit one home run 513 feet, another 506 feet, a third 504 feet in Miami, and a fourth 501 feet in Miami. Giancarlo Stanton hit a pair of home runs 497 feet in San Diego back in 2016 as well.

This year, the Home Run Derby heads to T-Mobile Park in Seattle. It is not the most home-run-friendly park, but home-run friendliness goes up at night. This is especially true for left-handed hitters, who see conditions at night similar to that of Coors Field. Now the question is, how far will the longest bomb be heading tonight?

Here are the Distance of Longest Home Run MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Home Run Derby Odds: Distance of Longest Home Run

Over 485.5 feet: -112

Under 485.5 feet: -112

How To Watch The 2023 MLB Home Run Derby

TV: ESPN

Stream: ESPN+

Time: 8:00 PM ET/ 5:00 PM PT

*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why the Distance of the Longest Home Run Will Be Over 485.5 Feet

The first question is can anyone in the field hit a home run over 485.5 feet? The answer to that is yes. The Home Run derby adds power to the bat. It has to start with exit velocity. In 2016 when Stanton launched a pair of bombs he was second in the majors in average exit velocity and first in max exit velocity. In 2017, the same was true for Aaron Judge. He was first in average exit velocity and second in max exit velocity. This year, Valdimir Guerrero Jr is sixth in both average exit velocity and max exit velocity. Behind him is Julio Rodriguez who is 12th in max exit velocity.  Some guys have the exit velocity to hit this distance.

Second, it requires someone who has hit one that far before. When Aaron Judge went over the mark in 2017, he had already hit one at a great distance before. The same went for Giancarlo Stanton and Juan Soto. Pete Alonso has hit one over 485.5 feet before. He hit one 489 feet back in 2019 and could do it again. Alonso has done it at the Derby before as well. He has the distance to do it again.

Finally is the Weather. Wind direction, speed, humidity, and temperature all play a factor. It is expected to be 68 degrees, with seven miles per hour wins to the southwest, and 52 percent humidity. The wind, temperature, and humidity are all in the sweet spot for this ballpark according to BallPark Pal. The wind is not in the most favorable spot, but still, with three of four factors in the positive, this is good news for distance.

Why the Distance of the Longest Home Run Will Be Under 485.5 Feet

First, the question is, is it possible to hit one that far at T-Mobile Park? The longest home runs in this ballpark are all under the mark. Mike Zunino holds the longest home run in the park at 470 feet. Behind that, four players are between 460 and 470 feet. While home run distances go up in the Home Run Derby, asking someone to hit one 16 feet longer than anyone ever has in this ballpark is a huge ask.

Secondly, this would be a huge jump for anyone in the field this year. Adley Rustchman has the longest home run of anyone in the field this year. He had his one on July 9th off Cole Sands that went 461 feet. Past that, Luis Robert Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Julio Rodriguez all have home runs over 450 feet. That is a huge jump to get up to 485.5 feet.

Finally, only one guy has the exit velocity this year and past performance to hit this distance. That is Guerrero Jr. To bank the entire bet on one guy is risky.

Final 2023 Home Run Derby Distance of the Longest Home Run Prediction and Pick

Moonshots are amazing. Everyone loves to see the ball go very deep. Some guys have the distance, such as Alonso and Guerrero Jr. Still, this would be a huge shot in this ballpark. The wind is not favorable, and the park is not favorable. Take the under in this one.

Final 2023 Home Run Derby Distance of the Longest Home Run Prediction and Pick: Under 485.5 (-112)