The Miami Heat have made an improbable run to the NBA Finals, led by their star Jimmy Butler. It is time to continue our NBA odds series with a special Jimmy Butler series points average prediction and pick.
In the regular season, Jimmy Butler averaged 22.9 points per game. He got hot when it mattered though. In March he was putting up 25.1 points per game while hitting the 28.7 points per game mark in the three games of April. Butler then stepped it up in the playoffs. In the first round, he scored thirty or more points in every game except one. That one game against the Bucks is also the only game the Heat did not win in the series. He averaged 37.6 points per game in that first series, including outputs of 42 and 56 points.
The second round against the Knicks saw Butler miss game two, but still a great performance against a top-quality defense. The Knicks held Butler to 24.6 points per game, including a series low 19 in the Knicks' only win of the series. As the defensive units have improved, Butler's points per game have dropped. Facing the fifth-ranked defense in the league in terms of points per game, Butler averaged just 24.7 points per game in the Boston series. Boston held him to a 16-point and 14-point outing in the series, and he only eclipsed 30 points one time. The line is set at 27.5 points per game for this prop, and while Butler has the potential to hit the over, can the Nuggets slow him down?
Here are the NBA Finals odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Finals Odds: Jimmy Butler Series Points Average
Over 27.5: -113
Under 27.5 -113
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Why Jimmy Butler Can Average 27.5+ Points
First, Jimmy Butler has shown he can average 30 points per game in a series. He did it just this playoffs against the Milwaukee Bucks. He scored 37.6 points per game in the series and was aided only by one overtime game. Also, like the Nuggets, the Bucks' top defenders in defensive win share are on the inside, away from Butler. This could help Butler get open and also cause the Heat to have to rely on him to score more. This is unlike the Celtics, who have one of their top defenders in a position to guard Butler.
Next, he was just shy of this prop in the next two series. One of those was against a much better defensive unit, and one of those was the series in which he missed a game. In the series against the Knicks, he was at 24.6 points per game, but was not 100% in the series, as he missed game two. Then, he averaged 24.7 points per game in the series against the Celtics, who have the fifth-ranked defense in terms of points per game.
Butler has hit this marker in three of his last six series played as well, going back to last year. Butler has played well in the top moments this year. The Nuggets were 12th in the NBA in scoring this year, so Butler is going to need to put up some points in the series to make sure they can get some wins.
Why Jimmy Butler Can't Average 27.5+ Points
While Jimmy Butler has averaged 27.5 points per game in a series in three of his last six series, it is also the only three times he has done it. Butler is averaging 28.5 points per game so far in the playoffs, but that is heavily helped by his opening series. In 2021-22 he was at 27.4 in the playoffs, but period to that, he has never been over 25 pints per game for an entire playoff.
Next, in Butler's career against the Nuggets, he averages just 20.8 points per game. Butler has played 20 games all-time against the Nuggets, with 17 of them having him log over 15 minutes. In those games, he is over 27.5 points just five times. His average in games in which he has logged over 25 minutes in his career against Denver is at just 22.6 points per game. Since 2020, he has played in five games against the Nuggets. He has scored over 27.5 points just once and is averaging 21.4 points per game.
Over the last two seasons, Butler has improved his regular season performance by an average of 5.9 points per game. Meaning, he has scored nearly six points per game more in a playoff game than in the regular season. Taking his average points in the last five games, and adding 5.9 points to it, he would be sitting at 27.3 points per game, which is under the benchmark.
Final Jimmy Butler Series Points Average Prediction and Pick
Jimmy Butler may be the MVP for this team in the playoffs, but hitting 27.5 points per game will be difficult. While Butler is averaging 28.5 points per game in the playoffs, if you take out the series with the Bucks, he is averaging just 24.7 points per game. We could assume that Butler will not have a bad game, but the Nuggets' defense is better than the Bucks. Taking out the Bucks series, and averaging only the best nine games of the other 12, Butler is still sitting at just 27.4 points per game. It seems like a tall ask for Butler to hit this number.
Final Jimmy Butler Series Points Average Prediction & Pick: Under 27.5 (-113)
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