The Denver Nuggets prepare to begin their quest for an NBA title and are hoping Michael Porter Jr. can play a big role in that. It is time to continue our NBA odds series with a special Michael Porter Jr. series points average prediction and pick.
So far in the playoffs, Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 14.6 points per game, below his season average of 17.4. In his first series against Minnesota, he averaged 16.4 points per game, being aided by a 25-point outing in game three. He shot fairly well, shooting 49.2% from the field and 42.4% from three. The next series against the Suns saw a drop. His shooting percentage declined and he averaged just 12.8 points per game in the series. This was heavily hurt by his 28.6% shooting night and five points in game two of the series. He made a solid comeback in the next series though, averaging 15 points per game, but still shooting just 40.8% on the series.
Here are the NBA Finals odds, courtesy of FanDuel
NBA Finals Odds: Michael Porter Jr. Series Points Average
Over 15.5: -113
Under 15.5 -113
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Why Michael Porter Jr. Can Average 15.5+ Points
First, Porter Jr. needs to put up the volume he did in the Lakers series, primarily from three. In the Lakers series, he took 12.3 shots per game, but 8.3 of them were from three points range. That is 1.7 more three-point attempts per game than the other two series. He averaged 3.5 made threes per game, and if he can keep that up, he can hit the over.
Second, he needs to get his shooting percentage up. He was at 42.4 % from three-point range in the Lakers series, which is good enough to carry him, but his non-three-point attempt shooting has to be better. He shot 40.2% overall in the Lakers series, in contrast to 45.3% and 49.2% in the other two series. On the season, he shot 48.7% from the field and 41.4% from three. If he shoots his season average, combined with the number of attempts he had in the Lakers series, he will clear 15.5 points per game.
Finally, he needs the help around him to put him in good situations. Michael Porter Jr.'s isolation frequency is just 3.1%. For context, Jamal Murray is 9.2% and Jokic is 7.2%. Porter Jr. relies heavily on assists to help him score. If Jokic can pop it out to him on the wing while being guarded by Adebayo, he could hit this marker with ease.
Why Michael Porter Jr. Can't Average 15.5+ Points
First, the Hest defense is second in the NBA on the year in points allowed per game. They allowed just 109.8 points per game this year. What truly helped them get there was the pace of play for Miami. Miami allowed just 83.2 field goal attempts on the year, which was the second-fewest in the league. Denver is not a push-the-pace type of team either, but if the games play at the much slower pace of the Heat, Porter will not get enough attempts for the over to hit.
Secondly, Porter Jr. has not shot nearly as well as he did in the regular season. He has had a game in each series that he shot below 33% for the game. He also has a game in each series that he shot below 30% from three-point range. In two of those three poor shooting games, he scored under ten points. With this potentially being a shot series, one bad night could cause the under to hit. If Porter Jr. has a night in which he scored only ten points, he would need to average nearly 17 points a night to make up for that. He has only hit over 17 points four times in the 15 games of the playoffs so far.
Finally is the fact that there may not be enough buckets to go around. Jokic and Jamal Murray have dominated scoring so far in the playoffs, while Aaron Gordon, Bruce Brown, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are all over ten points per game. With how the Heat play, and the potential for lower-scoring games, not all of those numbers can keep up.
Final Michael Porter Jr. Series Points Average Prediction and Pick
For as great as the defense was for the Heat this year, there was one area of weakness. The Heat were 22nd in the NBA in opponent three-point shooting percentage. If this series has a bunch of games in which the game flows from the inside out, the Nuggets may take advantage of that. Specifically, Michael Porter Jr. may take advantage of it. Still, even if he gets a bunch of three-point attempts, this number is just a little too high.
Final Michael Porter Jr. Series Points Average Prediction & Pick: Under 15.5 (-113)
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