Few predicted the Cleveland Guardians would be in first place in the AL Central at the All-Star break. Even fewer thought the Guardians would have the best record in the American League, yet here we are on July 17 and Cleveland sports a 58-37 record with a 4 1/2 game lead in the division.
Cleveland's trade deadline strategy has certainly changed over the last three months. Surely the front office didn’t think things would be going this well. Regardless, the Guardians have put themselves in a position to compete for a championship this fall. There is pressure, if you want it to call it that, on the front office to add the right pieces and push Cleveland closer to a title.
There is a priority to make moves with an emphasis on adding starting pitching. The Guardians have skated by this long without ace Shane Bieber and with other arms underperforming. Cleveland only has one starter they can trust in the playoffs. That is not a recipe for postseason success.
The Guardians have far from the best farm system, but this week's draft saw Cleveland with three of the first 48 picks. Those included the No. 1 overall pick the Guardians used on Oregon State second baseman Travis Bazzana. That could prompt Cleveland to be a little more aggressive with their established prospects in trade negotiations.
The Guardians will be involved in trade talks before the July 30 MLB trade deadline. Who they acquire might determine whether Cleveland chases a pennant in October or crumbles in the playoffs. These players shouldn’t cost much and could push the Guardians over the top.
Jack Flaherty
The Guardians aren’t the only ones in baseball having a bounce back campaign in 2024. Jack Flaherty was in pitching purgatory for the better part of four years before a surprisingly good first half with the Detroit Tigers this spring.
Flaherty has a 3.13 ERA in 16 starts, recording 119 strikeouts to just 16 walks across 95 innings. 10 of his 16 starts were quality starts. Somehow Flaherty missed out on the All-Star game but he will be a hot commodity on the trade market for the next few weeks.
Flaherty's one-year prove-it deal makes him expendable and his performance gives him value. A contending team looking for quality starting pitching will be all over Flaherty. The Guardians check those boxes and with few better options statistically, Cleveland should push to make this intra-division trade.
Only five teams have a worse starter ERA than the Guardians and the Marlins are the only team whose starting pitchers have produced a lower fWAR. Flaherty's 2.1 FanGraphs WAR is nearly better than all of Cleveland's starters combined (2.8 fWAR).
The Guardians might have to cough up a bit more to land Jack Flaherty but who can blame the Tigers for trying to get all they can for the former Cy Young candidate? He could give Cleveland a reliable arm and another playoff starter with past success.
Luis Severino
Another veteran who is having a resurgent season, Luis Severino's name has popped up in trade rumors for over a month. Even with the New York Mets climbing back into the playoff chase, Severino is being mentioned as a potential trade candidate.
A prime rental piece, Severino has been inconsistent at times this year but has shown flashes of his best self. He sports a 6-3 record with a 3.78 ERA across 109 2/3 innings. He's made 18 starts, eight of them quality starts, although he's allowed four or more earned runs six times.
The Mets might be hesitant to sell off some pieces as they've closed in on a playoff spot in the National League. Still, Severino is on a one-year contract and would probably net the Mets a decent prospect or two given how thin the starting pitcher market is.
The Guardians have done business with the Mets before, most notably the Francisco Lindor trade in 2021. That was an offseason trade, but the ability of the two franchises to work out a blockbuster should give them a good starting point if negotiations for Luis Severino begin.
It hasn’t always been pretty for Severino over the last few seasons, but he seems to have found some sort of groove in 2024. The Guardians should find a way to groove his stuff into their rotation.
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. represents the most expensive trade prospect mentioned in this article but adding the dynamic outfielder could give the Guardians an edge over other AL contenders.
Sure Chisholm has had his fair share of struggles since his MLB debut in 2020. He finally has some things clicking this year and at the very least is staying healthy. His controllability (under contract through 2027) makes Chisholm an attractive trade option, but there's no guarantee the floundering Marlins even want to move on from their animated star attraction.
Chisholm's career numbers don’t back that of a “star” but there is a lot to like about his game this season. He has 28 extra-base hits and has been very good with runners in scoring position, posting a .333 batting average and .981 OPS in those situations. It would be nice to see his .727 OPS rise but it's unfair to think he can get it much higher than .800.
He's also a solid base runner and has 18 steals on the year, although he's susceptible to being caught. A center fielder, there are reports that some teams are eyeing Chisholm as a second baseman. He was promoted as a second baseman before shifting to the outfield in 2023.
The Guardians are happy with Andres Gimenez at second base but wouldn’t scoff at the idea of an upgrade in center field. Tyler Freeman has a .660 OPS and doesn’t offer a ton defensively. Jazz Chisholm would add speed to Cleveland's lineup and give them defensive flexibility.
The cons are Miami's asking price and Cleveland's lineup already being lefty-heavy. Chisholm is a player worth taking a gamble on although he hasn’t unlocked his full potential yet in the big leagues. Perhaps a change of scenery will shift that.
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