We’re set for yet another betting prediction and pick as the UFC Paris Prelims continue to roll with this next bout in the Women’s Bantamweight (135) Division. Russian newcomer Darya Zheleznyakova will take on the surging No. 15 Ailin Perez of Argentina. Check out our UFC odds series for our Perez-Zheleznyakova prediction and pick.
Ailin Perez (10-2) has gone a solid 3-1 in her UFC tenure since 2022. After a debut loss to Stephanie Egger, she’s reeled off three-straight victories over competitors like Ashlee Evans-Smith and Joselyn Edwards. With all three of those coming by unanimous decision, she’ll be hoping for another dominant performance in this one. Perez stands 5’5″ with a 66-inch reach.
Darya Zheleznyakova (9-1) took home the victory in her recent UFC debut over Montserrat Rendon. Last fighting in March 2024, she’s eager the get back into action and begin to cement herself as a viable competitor within this division. She has a very promising start already and could greatly improve her stock here with a win. Zheleznyakova stands 5’9″ with a 68-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Paris Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Paris Odds: Ailin Perez-Darya Zheleznyakova Odds
Ailin Perez: -238
Darya Zheleznyakova: +195
Over 2.5 rounds: -315
Under 2.5 rounds: +230
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Why Ailin Perez Will Win
Ailin Perez clearly learned a lot from her debut loss to Stephanie Egger as she started too quickly and fought herself into a rear naked choke. The loss caused Perez to return to the drawing board and approach her fights with a different style. Since, she’s leaned heavily on improving her striking and using more of the dominant wrestling we’ve seen flashes of in the past. She has a very solid chin and isn’t typically at risk of getting knocked out, so expect her to shoot for a takedown or grapple along the fence if she gets into trouble here.
Ailin Perez benefits from being the more active wrestling during this matchup and her ability to hold opponents down could go a long way against a striker like Darya Zheleznyakova. Her opponent doesn’t typically spend a ton of time of her back and with Perez averaging over five takedowns per fight, we could see her control Zheleznyakova on the ground for extended periods of time. From there, it’ll be up to her to keep her control time active by landing ground-and-pound while advancing positions for a submission.
Why Darya Zheleznyakova Will Win
Darya Zheleznyakova is a very talented kickboxer from Russia and she fights with a mean streak that becomes apparent once she enters the cage. She’s very technical with her striking stance and loves to utilize her athletic kicking to all three levels. With five of her wins coming by way of knockout, she certainly possesses unique power within the weight class and will have the slight height and reach advantages during this one. As mentioned previously, Zheleznyakova will want to avoid the exchanges on the ground as her greatest success will come in the striking department.
Zheleznyakova looked very impressive during her UFC debut against a dangerous opponent in Montserrat Rendon as she controlled the striking exchanges and clearly stifled her opponent with her straight shots down the middle. Zheleznyakova didn’t have to particularly worry about the takedowns during that fight, so she really flourished in situations where she can gauge the distance and be first in the exchanges. If she can employ a similar tactic during this fight, she should be able to grab the underdog win.
Final Ailin Perez-Darya Zheleznyakova Prediction & Pick
This will be a very interesting matchup between striker and grappler as both women will hope to impose their will over three rounds. Ailin Perez is on fire at the moment with three consecutive UD wins and she’ll certainly have the grappling advantage during this fight.
Darya Zheleznyakova is a very talented striker and she passed a tough test during her UFC debut while showcasing her kickboxing skills. If she’s able to keep this fight on the feet and at range, she should be able to pick-and-pop her way to a knockout or decision win.
Ailin Perez, however, has been working tirelessly on her striking and given her propensity to shoot for takedowns early and often, I expect her to eventually bring this fight to the ground where she’ll begin to shift momentum in her favor. Her ground-and-pound has been very effective over her last few bouts and it seems as though a similar game plan could be the path of least resistance in this once. Let’s roll with the betting favorite to get the win.
Final Ailin Perez-Darya Zheleznyakova Prediction & Pick: Ailin Perez (-238)
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