Championship weekend sparked absolute chaos in terms of the College Football Playoff decision. There are now two prominent locks to make the Playoff in undefeated Michigan and Washington. The debate lies on the last two spots between Texas, Alabama, Georgia, and Florida State.

The juggernaut of Alabama football may be on the outside looking in. ESPN gives them a 42% chance to make the CFP, and a 13% chance to win the title game, per ESPN Stats & Info. If Alabama were to be in the Playoff, then the committee would have to add Texas to the four teams, since the Longhorns beat the Crimson Tide head-to-head and won the Big 12 Championship.

Alabama controlled part of its fate with the SEC Championship victory against Georgia, but the way head-to-head matchups play out, they need the committee to knock off a 13-0 Florida State team. The CFP selection committee has never had a team jump from outside the Top 6 into the CFP, which would happen if Texas and Alabama were to be in.

They've also never left out an undefeated Power 5 team, so the Seminoles hold an edge on the Tide. Alabama may be the better at the moment, but throwing away what Florida State has done is going to be difficult. In a short case, Alabama can't be in the Playoff without Texas and Georgia can't be in the Playoff without Alabama.

The Alabama football team are likely to be placed at the No. 5 slot, with Texas holding on tight to that victory in Tuscaloosa and Florida State showing their undefeated resume. This seems like a clear scenario, but the CFP committee has also never left an SEC team out of the equation. It's the best conference in college football, but this year they might have just ruled each other out, with crucial losses they can't come back from.