UFC 306: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili continues on the main card with the co-main event fight for the women’s flyweight championship between the champion Alexa Grasso and Valentina Shevchenko. The champion trilogy fight is set between these two flyweight competitors after their most recent fight ended in a very controversial split draw. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Grasso-Shevchenko prediction and pick.
Alexa Grasso (16-3-1) took the flyweight division by storm winning each of her first 4 fights when she moved up in weight from the strawweight division. Then gave her a crack at the queen of the division Valentina Shevchenk who she submitted in the 4th round to become the flyweight. After an egregious split draw in their rematch at Noche UFC last year, Grasso will be looking to successfully defend her title for the first time when she takes on Valentina Shevchenko at Noche UFC 306 this weekend.
Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1) looked like she was on her way to recapturing the UFC Flyweight Championship until judge Mike Bell had other plans giving Grasso a 10-8 5th round scoring it 47-47 ending the fight in a split draw. Shevchenko is hoping the third time is the charm when she gets locked in the Octagon for the last time when she takes on the champ Alexa Grasso this weekend at the Las Vegas Sphere.
Here are the Noche UFC 306 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
Noche UFC 306 Odds: Alexa Grasso-Valentina Shevchenko Odds
Alexa Grasso: -135
Valentina Shevchenko: +114
Over 4.5 rounds: -250
Under 4.5 rounds: +190
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Why Alexa Grasso Will Win
Alexa Grasso did the unthinkable dethroning the queen of the women’s flyweight division Valentina Shevchenko by choking her out in round four to become the newest women’s flyweight champion. She looked to defend her title for the first time in the rematch against Shevchenko but the fight unfortunately ended in a split draw which is why we are here a year later settling the score once and for all. Grasso gets to finally put this rivalry to rest when she takes on Shevchenko a third and final time this weekend at Noche UFC.
It was an odd case for a split draw because it seems as if Judge Mike Bell incorrectly scored the fight as he gave Grasso a 10-8 in round 5 when he most likely wanted to give that 10-8 to Grasso in round 2 when she dropped Shevchenko and almost finished her. Nonetheless, Grasso is here to make sure this time around that she gets the job done more dominantly.
She has leveled up since making the move to the flyweight division and she has looked like a complete fighter now more than she ever has in the past. While many believed that Shevchenko would be the better striker in this matchup that hasn’t been true in both of these fights. While Shevchenko is the better grappler, Grasso has more than held her own there as well even submitting her in the process.
Grasso is going to have the advantage at range with her boxing and she certainly has the power to sit Shevchenko down again so, it’s going to come down to Grasso making the adjustments to stay on the feet and let her hands go, as long as she does that she defends her title for the first time this weekend.
Why Valentina Shevchenko Will Win
Valentina Shevchenko was essentially the boogeyman of the flyweight division for quite some time until Alexa Grasso came into the picture. Shevchenko was at the top of the division for so long and she will be looking to get back to her dominant ways when she steps in the Octagon at the Las Vegas Sphere in front of the sold-out crowd to take on the champion Alexa Grasso this weekend at Noche UFC.
Shevchenko needs to get back to her ways of utilizing her kicks to keep out of boxing range. She was allowing Grasso to control the center of the Octagon and get into the range where she could land her crisp combinations. However, Shevchenko possesses great Muay Thai that she is going to need to get back to in order to be victorious this weekend. Also, Shevchenko is going to need to do a better at job when landing the takedowns as she will need to maintain control and punish Grasso with ground and pound to take some of the wind out of her sails in this matchup.
If Shevchenko gets back to her old dominant self she has a chance to recapture her UFC title and go down as one of the best to ever do it.
Final Alexa Grasso-Valentina Shevchenko Prediction & Pick
This is a fantastic co-main event as the two best women flyweight fighters get to settle the score and show who’s best in the UFC by the end of the night. Ultimately, it feels like it’s time to pass the torch as Shevchenko had a long historic career at the top of the division but it’s time for Grasso’s long reign and Grasso is going to come in there and finally finish the job emphatically putting Shevchenko away going down as the best flyweight fighter in the UFC right now.
Final Alexa Grasso-Valentina Shevchenko Prediction & Pick: Alexa Grasso (-135), Under 4.5 Rounds (+190)
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