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Texas and Arizona State will meet in a highly anticipated game at the Peach Bowl for the right to go to the College Football Playoff semifinals. The New Year's Day showdown has a heavy spread in favor of a Longhorns team that is coming off a dominant victory over Clemson in the first round. This is the largest spread out of all quarterfinal matchups, showcasing that Vegas has a lot of faith in head coach Steve Sarkisian's program.
Texas heads into the matchup as the No. 3 team in the country, with two losses to No. 2 Georgia. Aside from the win over No. 16 Clemson, the Longhorns do not have a victory over a current top-25 team. That is surprising since this program is now in the vaunted SEC Conference. Still, it's been a very successful fourth year under Steve Sarkisian to this point. And now, the Longhorns can return to the stage where their season ended last year against Washington.
To get back to the semifinals, Texas must defeat a red-hot Arizona State that just obliterated Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship game. The Sun Devils bring an elite offense led by All-American running back Cam Skattebo. While much of the interest heading into this game is on how Texas' defense will contain Skattebo, this contest will likely come down to what happens on the other side of the ball. And the Sun Devils have some serious weaknesses that, if Texas can exploit them, will allow the Longhorns to cover this bold spread.
Arizona State's pass rush sticks out like a sore thumb in this matchup
It's fair to assume that the Longhorns' defense will not get gashed on Wednesday night. This unit is one of the best in the country. Heading into this game, Texas is second in the nation in scoring defense at 13.3 points per game. The Longhorns additionally only allow 104.5 yards per game, which is a good sign heading into this matchup. Opponents have scored over 20 points three times and 30 points once this season against Steve Sarkisian's team.
That 30-point game was in a home loss to Georgia in October. It's important to note Texas football had four turnovers in that contest. Overall, it's fair to assume that if the Longhorns can replicate their 38-point showing against Clemson, they will win this game easily. Against the Tigers, Steve Sarkisian immediately identified Clemson's rush defense as a weakness. The Sun Devils, in contrast, are pretty solid in this facet, giving up 117.5 yards per game and leading the Big 12.
However, the No. 3 ranked team should still be able to run the ball against this unit. But that fact doesn't cover up Arizona State's main weakness, which is two-pronged. Head coach Kenny Dillingham's team has a very limited pass rush and a leaky secondary. The Sun Devils have only recorded 21 sacks all year. Clemson, on the other hand, had 32 heading into the first-round matchup. Quinn Ewers' mobility limitations due to his ankle injury make that element huge heading into this game.
This quarterfinal should be the Quinn Ewers' Appreciation Game
Arizona State's issues getting to the quarterback are even more stark with a secondary that can get beat. The Sun Devils rank eighth in the Big 12 Conference in passing yards allowed at 219.4 per game. That may not be a gaudy statistic, but it sticks out, considering that the best quarterback Arizona State probably faced all year was their quarterback, Sam Leavitt, in practice. The Big 12 wasn't stacked under center this year, except for in Boulder with Shedeur Sanders, and the Sun Devils did not play the Buffaloes in 2024.
With ample protection and elite weapons around him, Quinn Ewers should have a phenomenal game in Atlanta. The redshirt junior is getting back a key wide receiver for the Peach Bowl and is due for a massive performance. As many fans and pundits are looking forward to the season backup QB Arch Manning will likely have in 2025, Quinn Ewers has been essential in bringing Texas “back.” Despite the ankle injury, this should be the game where fans can appreciate him at his best.
What's at stake in the 2025 Peach Bowl for Texas
A lot of the goodwill Texas football has built under Steve Sarkisian will be stalled with a loss in the 2025 Peach Bowl. The Longhorns are massive favorites and have had a reasonably straightforward path to this stage in their season. With many pundits believing that Steve Sarkisian's team has the personnel and the path to get back to Atlanta for the 2025 National Championship game, anything less than a semifinal appearance would be considered a disappointing showing from this elite program.
