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The NBA Draft is Thursday and the Houston Rockets will be picking fourth. It is now time to continue our NBA Draft odds series with a No. 4 overall selection prediction and pick.
Victor Wembanya is expected to be the top pick in the draft on Thursday. He will most likely be followed by Scoot Henderson and Brandon Miller at the second and third picks. The order of those two is yet to be decided, but they are the consensus second and third picks. That leaves plenty of options for the Houston Rockets at the No. 4 pick in the NBA Draft.
The No. 4 pick has produced some great players. Dave Cowens was drafted fourth overall in 1970 by the Celtics, and he went on to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. As did the fourth pick in the 2003 NBA draft, Chris Bosh. The fourth pick from the 2008 draft seems destined for the Hall, as Russell Westbrook when fourth in 2008. Then there is the fourth pick from 2005, who is only a 12-time all-star and 11-time All-NBA player. That was Chris Paul who went fourth overall to the Hornets.
The favorite to go fourth overall is Amen Thompson. He could be a great fit with Jalen Green and add some more athleticism to the roster. His brother is also a wing out of the Overtime Elite League, Ausar Thompson Cam Whitmore is another top option, as another wing player out of Villanova. Whitmore is a versatile player that could play different positions on this Houston Rockets squad. Jarace Walker out of Houston could not have to change addresses and give the Rockers a nice big forward who continues to improve. Then there are Brandon Miller and Scoot Henderson. If somehow one of them falls to fourth, this could be an easy pick for the Rockets.
Here are the NBA Draft Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NBA Draft Odds: No. 4 Overall Pick
Amen Thompson -320
Ausar Thompson +600
Cam Whitmore +750
Brandon Miller +2500
Jarace Walker +2500
Scoot Henderson +3400
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Favorites To Be Selected No. 4 Overall
The favorites to go No. 4 in the NBA draft are the Thompson twins. Amen Thompson is the overall favorite for this pick. Amen is the better prospect of the two by most accounts. Both are wing players and both have some great strengths. Amen is amazing on the pick and roll, and can handle the ball well. He is a plus defender with great size and speed. He can spark transition with his defensive skills and quality ball pressure. Still, he struggles from shooting anywhere outside right at the rim. Beyond outside shooting, there is a major knock on him due to the competition he played. He played in a league of 16-20-year-olds. When he did play in a tournament against better competition, he struggled to drive on the defense.
Next is his brother Ausar. He has both good size and speed. Ausar is highly athletic and a quality finisher at the rim. He is a better cutter toward the rim than a pick-and-roll player. Ausar is also a quality passer that is highly creative with the ball. His jumper is getting better but is still not great. He may not be as good of a fit next to Jalen Green as his brother, but he could be a quality pick here.
Right behind Ausar Thompson is Cam Whitmore. He was the Big East Freshman of the Year last year, and at 6'7″ he is one of the best rim players in the class. Whitmore is solid on the defensive end, with 1.4 steals per game last year. He is a fair shooter and showed that last year, but at the rim, he hit 72.3% of his shots. Whitmore is more of a known commodity than the others, but with the Rockets clearly in a rebuild, it may be wise to go with the boom-or-bust candidates here.
Sleepers To Be Selected No. 4 Overall
Of the three guys with longer odds, two of them fit into the same idea. Sitting fourth and sixth in odds are Brandon Miller and Scoot Henderson. They are widely projected to go with the second and third picks in the draft. If one of them is passed up in favor of one of the Thompson twins, this should be the pick. Miller would be more likely than Henderson, not only with the option to fall here but the fit. It seems like the Rockets are leaning toward going with a forward with this pick. So even if Henderson is available, he will not be the pick here.
Jarace Walker out of Houston is a stretch here. He is tall and athletic with great interior scoring. He is a solid defender and can guard both big men and guards. Walker is the best of the group on the offensive glass and solid on the defensive end. He will be used on the pick and roll more than he was at Houston. He can pass well but has not shown the ability to hit deep shots. With the option of at least one Thompson brother on the board, he will not be the selection here.
No. 4 Overall Draft Pick Prediction and Pick
This pick comes down to two scenarios. First, Amen Thompson is picked second or third. If that is the case and Brandon Miller is available he is the pick. Brandon Miller will not be available though. If it is Scoot Henderson, do they pick him or go with Ausar? The second scenario is Amen Thompson is available. That is going to be the case on Thursday night. With the No. 4 in the 2023 NBA Draft, the Houston Rockets select Amen Thompson.
No. 4 Overall Draft Pick Prediction and Pick: Amen Thompson (-320)
